Former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has emerged as the dominant frontrunner in the race for the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) 2026 presidential primaries, according to a new report released by Africa Policy Lens.
The findings from the latest national opinion poll offer a revealing glimpse into the internal dynamics of the NPP, the party’s grassroots preferences, and the evolving contours of cross-party voter sentiment in Ghana.
The survey indicates that Dr. Bawumia commands an impressive 70.6% support among NPP supporters, a figure that solidifies his hold over the party’s base.
This overwhelming margin leaves his nearest contender, outspoken NPP stalwart and former Member of Parliament for Assin Central, Kennedy Agyapong, trailing far behind with just 21.4% support among the same demographic.
The remainder of respondents are either undecided or aligned with fringe options, underscoring the two-man dominance within the party’s internal contest.
While Kennedy Agyapong’s standing within the NPP remains significantly behind Dr Bawumia’s, the poll introduces an intriguing twist: Kennedy Agyapong enjoys notable support among members of the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC).
According to the survey, 48.4% of NDC respondents expressed a preference for Mr Agyapong as the NPP’s presidential candidate, while Dr. Bawumia received 35.3% support from the same group.
The rest of the NDC respondents remained undecided, reflecting the complexity of voter attitudes and hinting at potential crossover appeal in the next general elections.
This cross-party dimension adds a unique layer to the polling narrative, positioning Mr Agyapong as a figure with unconventional appeal beyond traditional NPP circles.
However, the sheer dominance of Dr Bawumia within his party suggests that internal momentum is heavily on his side as the 2026 primaries approach.
Reasons for Bawumia’s Dominance
The reasons behind Dr Bawumia’s popularity among NPP members are clearly articulated in the report. Respondents overwhelmingly view him as the party’s best hope for reclaiming power in the 2028 general elections.
His candidacy is widely perceived as a unifying force, offering a balance of technocratic competence, party loyalty, and regional strategy. Of particular strategic value is his northern heritage, which many NPP supporters see as a critical electoral asset.
“Dr Bawumia’s broad national appeal—evident in his lead across 12 out of 16 regions—reinforces his image as a unifying candidate with cross-regional support.”
Africa Policy Lens.
His ethnic and regional background is viewed as a potential bridge to traditionally NDC-leaning northern regions, enabling the NPP to make meaningful inroads into areas where it has historically struggled.
The regional breakdown provided in the poll adds further insight into the geographic dynamics of the upcoming race. Dr. Bawumia enjoys widespread dominance in traditional NPP bastions such as the Ashanti and Eastern Regions.
He also commands strong support in Greater Accra, a key battleground region often decisive in national elections.
Notably, his strength is even more pronounced in northern Ghana, where he is projected to carry the Northern, North East, Upper West, Upper East, and Savannah Regions with ease.
The report highlights his ability to garner support even among NDC voters in these areas, emphasizing his reputation as a candidate who transcends party boundaries.
In contrast, Kennedy Agyapong’s support is largely concentrated in the Central, Volta, and Western North regions. The Ahafo Region appears to be evenly split between the two contenders, offering a potential swing area in the primaries.
However, Mr Agyapong’s limited traction outside of a few regions underlines the challenges he faces in mounting a serious threat to Bawumia’s dominance.
Despite Dr Bawumia’s commanding lead, the poll also flags areas of concern for his campaign. The Volta Region and parts of Western North remain stubbornly resistant, with strong NDC affiliations and voter skepticism about the NPP.
These are regions where Mr Agyapong appears to have gained an edge, and where Dr Bawumia’s campaign may need to invest more effort and resources to win hearts and minds.
