Ghana’s economy is expected to grow at an impressive pace in 2025, with the Standard Bank Economy 2025 Report projecting a 6.2% growth rate, a significant jump from the initial 3.8% forecast.

This revised figure also surpasses the government’s 2025 Budget projection of 4.0%, suggesting strong underlying drivers for growth despite global and domestic challenges.

According to the Standard Bank report, the primary catalyst for the expected surge in economic activity is the mining sector, which has shown resilience and strong performance in 2024. Notably, the commissioning of the Cardinal Namdini mine in the fourth quarter of 2024, alongside the expected commencement of operations at the Ahafo North mine by mid-2025, is anticipated to significantly bolster gold output.

“The authorities expect these two mines to cumulatively contribute around 600,000 ounces to gold production. Hence, this development may also result in higher GDP growth in 2025 than our current core scenario.”
Standard Bank

This outlook aligns with Ghana’s historical dependence on the extractive sector, particularly gold, which remains one of the country’s top export earners. The enhanced contribution of these new mines is likely to improve not only real GDP but also foreign exchange earnings and government revenues.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s Steady Recovery

Ghana’s expected growth comes amid a broader recovery trend across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Standard Bank projects SSA growth to reach 4.0% year-on-year in 2025, compared to 3.6% in 2024. This modest rebound is notable, given the sluggish global growth and subdued external demand.

In its earlier January 2024 African Markets Revealed (AMR) publication, Standard Bank argued that SSA economies would prove resilient. The reasoning behind this, according to the report, was the region’s reliance on domestic consumption.

“Since private consumption expenditure comprises a notably larger share of overall GDP, subdued external demand from weaker global growth wasn’t likely to majorly disrupt economic activity in many of the SSA markets in our coverage.”
Standard Bank

This has turned out to be largely accurate, with countries like Ghana showing stronger-than-expected output despite the global economic headwinds.

Agriculture Weighs Down Growth Potential

While the mining sector provides significant upside, the performance of the cocoa sub-sector has been underwhelming, with challenges in production and export earnings. Factors such as climate variability, aging farms, and disease outbreaks have dampened yields in recent years.

The poor performance of cocoa, traditionally a major contributor to Ghana’s agricultural GDP, has therefore created a drag on overall growth. However, the strength of the industrial and extractive sectors appears to more than compensate for this weakness in the near term.

First Quarter 2025 Shows Promising Signs

Further underscoring this optimistic outlook is the latest data from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), which shows that the country’s GDP expanded by 5.3% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 4.9% during the same period in 2024. This performance is a testament to Ghana’s growing economic momentum, driven by diversified sectoral contributions and relative macroeconomic stability.

The 5.3% growth in Q1 positions the country strongly as it enters the second half of the year, particularly with the anticipated boost from mining activities and potentially improved macroeconomic management.

As Ghana edges closer to a 6.2% growth mark, economic planners and policymakers will need to sustain macroeconomic reforms, improve the business climate, and support sectors like agriculture to ensure inclusive growth. While the extractive sector brings substantial gains, overreliance on it may expose the economy to commodity price shocks.

Moreover, the government must ensure that increased revenues from mining are reinvested in critical areas such as infrastructure, education, and social protection, to amplify development outcomes.

With prudent economic management and continued investment in key industries, Ghana is well-positioned to consolidate this growth and move closer to its medium-term development goals.