Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics and renowned pollster, has shared detailed insights from an Akwatia by-election exit poll following the victory of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Bernard Bediako Baidoo.
The by-election, held on September 2, 2025, has been closely watched as a test of political strength between Ghana’s two leading parties — the NDC and the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
According to Dankwah, the results reveal both good and bad news for the NPP. While the opposition party managed to avoid voter apathy, a key factor often blamed for electoral losses, it ultimately failed to secure victory due to strategic shifts in voter behavior.
He cautioned political actors against assuming that votes garnered in past elections automatically translate into a party’s core base.
“Lessons here: do not take the vote you get in an election to be your party’s supporters. It is always a coalition of voters.”
Mussa Dankwah
The exit poll data provided by Global InfoAnalytics shed light on the underlying dynamics of the vote.
Dankwah revealed that in the 2024 general election, when the late MP Ernest Kumi of the NPP won the seat, the coalition of voters behind his victory was far more diverse than many believed.
“The Exit poll shows that of the votes Kumi won in the 2024 election, 83% were NPP voters, 13% were NDC, 3% were floating voters, 1% were other political party supporters, and 1% did not disclose their party affiliations.”
Mussa Dankwah
This breakdown, Dankwah noted, demonstrates that a portion of Kumi’s success in 2024 came from NDC supporters who crossed party lines at the time, either due to his personal appeal or local circumstances.
However, during Tuesday’s by-election, many of these NDC-leaning voters returned to their party fold, casting their ballots for Baidoo.
This, Dankwah argued, was a decisive factor in the NDC’s victory, even though, in raw numbers, NPP voters slightly outnumbered NDC voters by six percent.
Swing Voters, Development Issues Dominate Akwatia By-Election
One of the most striking findings from the exit poll is the prominence of development as a key issue influencing voter decisions.
“While 40% of NPP voters cited development as a key issue, 61% of NDC voters cited development, and 61% of floating voters also cited development projects as their key issue of concern. Overall, 50% of respondents said development was their key priority.”
Mussa Dankwah
This suggests that across party lines, voters are increasingly motivated by tangible improvements in infrastructure and social amenities rather than purely partisan loyalty.
According to Dankwah, a significant group of voters who had previously supported the late MP Ernest Kumi shifted their allegiance to Baidoo because they viewed him as more likely to deliver on development promises.
He explained that 15% of Kumi’s voters ultimately cast their ballots for Baidoo in the by-election, a critical swing that tipped the balance of power.
This trend also indicates that while party loyalty remains important, voters are willing to cross political lines when their expectations for development are not met.
Dankwah further analyzed the internal dynamics within the NPP that contributed to its loss. He noted that some NPP voters who participated in the by-election decided to abandon their candidate, Solomon Asumadu, and vote for Baidoo instead.
This phenomenon highlights an internal dissatisfaction within the party and signals that not all NPP voters were fully aligned with their candidate’s message or leadership style.
Additionally, Dankwah pointed to a strategic error made by the NDC in 2024 that cost them the seat at the time.
According to him, NDC’s previous candidate, Yiadom Boakye, lost because certain NDC voters withheld their support.
Recognizing this, the party wisely chose not to field Boakye again in the by-election, instead selecting Bernard Bediako Baidoo, who managed to unite the party base and attract floating voters.
Lessons For Future Elections
The findings from the Akwatia by-election offer valuable lessons for both major political parties as Ghana heads toward future contests.
For the NPP, Dankwah stressed the importance of understanding that electoral victories are built on coalitions, not just party loyalists. Assuming that all previous votes are guaranteed supporters is a miscalculation that can lead to complacency and defeat.
The NDC, on the other hand, demonstrated the benefits of recalibrating its strategy and fielding candidates who resonate with voters on issues like development.
Their ability to reclaim voters who had previously crossed party lines was pivotal to their success in Akwatia.
Dankwah’s analysis also underscores a broader trend: Ghanaians are becoming increasingly issue-driven in their voting patterns.
As development concerns continue to dominate voter priorities, parties that focus on tangible improvements in communities will have a competitive edge.
With the 2028 general election on the horizon, both the NPP and NDC will need to study the lessons from Akwatia carefully.
The by-election result may serve as a bellwether for future political battles, especially in swing constituencies where voter loyalty is fluid.
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