Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, has revealed that current polling data points to a strong lead for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
He explained that with the exception of Julius Debrah, all other potential NDC candidates are currently polling ahead of their New Patriotic Party (NPP) counterparts. His comments followed data from the most recent poll from his company.
The new tracking poll by Global InfoAnalytics suggested that NDC’s Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia would edge NPP’s former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in a possible 2028 presidential contest.
According to the survey, Asiedu Nketia commands 50% of voter support, while Dr. Bawumia follows with 45%. The remaining 5% of respondents indicated support for another candidate.
The poll described the matchup as a highly competitive race, with the NDC stalwart narrowly ahead of the NPP’s 2024 flagbearer. Global InfoAnalytics observed that the tight margins underscore the likelihood of a fiercely contested election should the two face off.
The poll further assessed the NDC’s internal race to lead the party into the 2028 elections. Member of Parliament for Tamale South and Minister of Education, Hon. Haruna Iddrisu, emerged as the frontrunner with 30% support, followed by Asiedu Nketia with 24% and Finance Minister Hon. Ato Forson with 18%.
Chief of Staff Julius Debrah recorded 10%, while Hon. Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa secured 8%. Other aspirants including Eric Opoku, Joshua Alabi, Armah-Kofi Buah, and Kwame Awuah-Darko each polled 2%. Dr. Ekwow Spio-Garbrah obtained 1% while Alfred Okoe Vanderpuije registered no support.
The survey also tested scenarios with fewer candidates. In a three-horse contest excluding Hon. Forson, Hon. Iddrisu extended his lead to 45%, compared to 37% for Asiedu Nketia and 18% for Julius Debrah. Among NDC voters, Hon. Iddrisu’s backing climbed to 47%, while Asiedu Nketia had 39% and Debrah 14%.
In the swing regions, Hon. Iddrisu dominated with 48%, ahead of Asiedu Nketia’s 37% and Julius Debrah’s 15%.
When Hon. Iddrisu was excluded, the race tightened significantly. Asiedu Nketia led with 40%, closely followed by Hon. Ato Forson at 38%, while Julius Debrah secured 22%. Among NDC voters, Asiedu Nketia had 42% compared to Hon. Ato Forson’s 41% and Julius Debrah’s 17%. However, in swing regions, Hon. Forson edged ahead with 47%, compared to 38% for Nketia and 15% for Debrah.
Global InfoAnalytics noted that while Hon. Haruna Iddrisu currently commands the strongest support, the dynamics could shift if he is not in the race, leaving Asiedu Nketia and Hon. Ato Forson in a near dead heat.
Bawumia Dominates NPP Flagbearer Contest
On the NPP side, former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia emerged as the clear frontrunner to lead the party in 2028. The poll placed him at 57% support compared to 29% for former Assin Central MP Kennedy Agyapong.
Former Education Minister Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum secured 6%, while former Food and Agriculture Minister Dr. Bryan Acheampong polled 5% and former NPP General Secretary Kwabena Agyapong recorded 3%.
In swing regions, Dr. Bawumia maintained a decisive lead with 57% support, compared to 32% for Kennedy Agyapong. Dr. Adutwum and Dr. Acheampong each secured 4%, while Kwabena Agyapong registered 3%.
The poll also tested a potential runoff between Dr. Bawumia and Kennedy Agyapong. In such a scenario, Bawumia’s lead extended to 62%, while Agyapong managed 38%.
Among NPP delegates, Dr. Bawumia polled 47%, while Kennedy Agyapong followed with 17%. Dr. Acheampong and Dr. Adutwum had 3% and 1% respectively, with Kwabena Agyapong also at 1%. Twenty-seven percent of delegates remained undecided, while 4% declined to disclose their preference.
In a potential delegates’ runoff, Dr. Bawumia stood at 49% against Kennedy Agyapong’s 19%, with 27% undecided and 5% declining to reveal their choice.
According to Mussa Dankwah, the findings suggest that while the NPP’s internal race is firmly in favour of Dr. Bawumia, “the national picture is more competitive.” Hon. Haruna Iddrisu’s strong showing within the NDC and Asiedu Nketia’s narrow edge over Dr. Bawumia indicates that the ruling party currently maintains a lead heading into the 2028 polls.
According to Global InfoAnalytics, the continuing trend points to a potentially fierce contest between the two major parties as early maneuvering begins well ahead of the election year.
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