The 2026 Budget statement to be read by the Minister of Finance in November is likely to secure a 1.5% primary surplus of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The target is specified in the Ghana Financial Management (Amendment) Act, 2025 (Act 1136), and looking at the credibility of the government in terms of its policies and fiscal discipline over the past 9 months, IC Research is confident the government will achieve this milestone.
The renowned research firm is certain that the upcoming Budget Statement will make provisions to achieve this target. In the first 8 months of the year, Ghana’s primary surplus stood at 1.1% of GDP, inspiring hope that next year will be an improvement.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in observing the fiscal discipline of the government so far, is hopeful that the government will achieve the 1.5% primary surplus of GDP by the end of 2025.
“The government has exhibited sufficient policy credibility to stay within the fiscal limits in 2026.”
IC Research Institute
The Financial Management (Amendment) Act
The Amendment Act repealed the previous Act (Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2018) and reinforced the government’s fiscal discipline mandate. Key measures introduced include, Primary Balance Rule, Debt Ceiling Target, Independent Fiscal Council establishment, and new sanctions for fiscal mismanagement, which appear to be stricter than the former.
The Primary Balance Rule mandates the government’s revenue for a Budget period to exceed its expenditure by at least 1.5% of the annual GDP on a commitment basis. The newly established Fiscal Independent Council will monitor and ensure the government is compliant to guarantee fiscal sustainability is promoted.
According to IC Research, achieving this would mark the first time a government has achieved 1.5% surplus since the Act was enacted in 2018.
With the IMF program’s end in sight, the Fund is still insistent and expectant of the 1.5% surplus achievement in the 2026 Budget Statement to continue the success story of 2025.
Revenue Shortfall Challenge
The independent market intelligence data institute praised the Finance Minister and the government for the economic discipline and achievements so far. The International Institute is poised that the government will achieve the surplus target next year.
“We think the authorities [government] have exhibited sufficient policy credibility to stay within the fiscal limits in 2026”
IC Research Institute
One challenge that the government will face is the sustained revenue shortfalls. It seems to be a characteristic of successive governments. The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA), and the government must focus on widening the tax net.
The informal sector must be drawn into the tax net. Increasing taxes would hurt the government’s popularity, as it did the previous administration. Therefore, bringing everyone on board to contribute to the development of the “Ghana we want,” as one of the government slogans says, is the logical step for the government.
The government has also declared its intention not to quickly go back to the international market is impressive. However, requires an alternative revenue source for the country since the country has depended so much and for so long on credit facilities.
This, according to the Institute, remains a test for the government. With current infrastructure projects and various implementations of policy initiatives, the pressure of increased spending to fulfill government promises needs to be carefully assessed.
“However, we flag the continued revenue underperformance amid expectation of a ramp-up in spending pressure as a major test of the authorities’ resolve to sustain fiscal credibility beyond the IMF program.”
IC Research Institute
The 2026 Budget Statement in November
The Minister of Finance, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson has set the 2026 Budget Statement and Economic Policy reading to November 13.
Economists, stakeholders of the sector, Ghanaians in general, and the international community patiently await the Budget reading with varying expectations. Nevertheless, some expectations are general for most people: job creation, stimulating economic growth, fiscal discipline, inclusivity, and sustainable development.
Another important expectation is the Finance Ministry and the government’s plan to independently manage the Ghanaian economy post-IMF program.
Without oversight, extreme discipline is required for progress. The 2026 Budget Statement is keen as it also marks the Mahama-led administration’s official and substantive financing and policy framework. Though the 2025 mid-year Budget revealed some of the government’s work, it is not its main budget.
The success of the government has been in prudent management and discipline. Ghanaians look forward to the continuation of the macroeconomic achievements of 2025 in 2026.
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