Ghana’s treasury market has been plunged into one of its most unsettling moments in recent months as investors continue to flee short-term government securities.
The latest auction results released by the Bank of Ghana reveal another deeply disappointing performance, with the government missing its T-bill target by a wide margin. Despite rising interest rates, investor appetite remains weak, signalling a profound confidence crisis.
The troubling exodus is raising new questions about the sustainability of Ghana’s domestic debt strategy and whether the 2026 budget can restore calm to the jittery market.
The financial system is closely watching how the government responds to these recurring auction setbacks, which are gradually becoming a defining feature of the country’s short-term borrowing landscape. As investors reduce exposure, Ghana’s fiscal pressures continue to intensify, amplifying the urgency for credible policy action.
Government Suffers Major Undersubscription Again
According to the Bank of Ghana, the government targeted GH¢5.67 billion in its latest T-bills issuance but received only GH¢3.94 billion in bids—reflecting a massive shortfall of nearly GH¢2 billion. Out of the total bids tendered, the government accepted GH¢3.83 billion, still well below what it needed to meet refinancing and liquidity obligations.
The 91-day bill accounted for more than 77% of all bids, signalling investor preference for shorter commitments amid heightened uncertainty. A total of GH¢3.07 billion was tendered for this tenor, with GH¢2.97 billion being accepted.
The 182-day bill had GH¢613.27 million tendered and GH¢608.27 million accepted. Likewise, the 364-day bill saw GH¢257.13 million in bids, with GH¢254.13 million accepted.
The repeated failure to meet targets illustrates a worrying trend: investors are scaling back substantially despite the government offering increasingly attractive yields. The once-reliable domestic market can no longer be taken for granted as concerns mount about Ghana’s fiscal trajectory.*Rising Interest Rates Not Enough to Hold Investors
Ordinarily, upward-moving yields should encourage participation. But the continued investor exodus indicates that even rising returns cannot compensate for growing uncertainty.
The 91-day T-bill rate climbed by 10 basis points to 11.02%, a notable increase given its dominance in the market. The 182-day bill also rose to 12.66% from 12.61% a week earlier. Surprisingly, the 364-day bill recorded a slight decline, dropping by 7 basis points to 13.08%. Despite these adjustments, investors remain largely unmoved.
Their hesitation reflects deeper anxieties tied to Ghana’s macroeconomic environment—concerns that cannot be soothed simply through marginal yield increases. What investors want is certainty, clarity, and credible fiscal management. At the moment, these remain in short supply.
What Is Driving the Investor Exodus?
The sharp decline in investor participation is not random; it is driven by several significant concerns.
First, Ghana’s increased reliance on T-bills as a primary financing mechanism has heightened fears about rollover risks. Investors are worried about the government’s ability to continuously refinance short-term debt without destabilizing the market, especially when the recent DDEP is still fresh in their minds.
As such, treasury instruments, once viewed as safe havens, are now seen as carrying elevated levels of risk.
Moreover, uncertainty surrounding Ghana’s medium-term fiscal plan—including how quickly the government can chart a path toward sustainability—has discouraged conservative investors such as banks, fund managers, and pension firms.
Finally, global risk sentiment is shifting, with investors increasingly seeking safer assets or long-term investments that provide more stability than short-term government bills.
The cumulative effect Is an unprecedented retreat from Ghana’s treasury market—one that threatens government liquidity if not addressed swiftly.
2026 Budget Seen as the Last Hope for Reversing the Trend
Amid the turmoil, analysts believe the recently unveiled 2026 Budget, presented by Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, may hold the key to turning investor sentiment around. According to experts, the budget’s policy direction could rekindle confidence—if it convincingly addresses revenue enhancement, debt sustainability, spending controls, and economic stabilization.
The budget is being watched as a potential reset point. If it demonstrates commitment to reducing short-term borrowing reliance, improving fiscal discipline, and implementing structural reforms, investors may return to the T-bill market in stronger numbers.
However, analysts warn that confidence will not rebound overnight. Investors will demand proof—not promises—that the government can stabilize the economy. Execution, transparency, and policy consistency will be critical in the months ahead.
The massive investor exodus from T-bills has become one of Ghana’s most urgent economic challenges. With the government repeatedly missing auction targets and interest rates climbing without effect, it is clear that confidence—not yield—is the central problem.
The 2026 Budget now stands as the government’s best chance to reassure investors and restore credibility. How effectively the government follows through on its fiscal commitments will determine whether the treasury market recovers or continues its worrying decline.
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