Technical report from the University of Ghana has revealed that artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) gold exports climbed from 63.6 metric tonnes in 2024 to an unprecedented 103.0 metric tonnes in 2025.
The strategic intervention of the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) catalyzed this historic surge in the formalization of the small-scale mining sector, resulting in a remarkable 39.4-metric tonne increase in recorded exports between 2024 and 2025.
This incremental growth is not merely a statistical achievement but represents a fundamental shift in the extractive landscape, as GoldBod’s competitive pricing and purchasing framework successfully reclaimed volumes that were historically lost to the shadows of the informal market and cross-border smuggling.
“This additional volume plausibly reflects gold that had previously been smuggled out of the country but has now been formalised through GoldBod’s pricing and purchasing framework. The recorded artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) gold exports rose sharply from 63.6 metric tonnes in 2024 to 103.0 metric tonnes in 2025.”
University of Ghana Report
The report authored by the Senior academics, Professor Festus Ebo Turkson of the Department of Economics, Professor Agyapomaa Gyeke-Dako of the University of Ghana Business School, and economist Peter Junior Dotse highlighted that this 62% year-on-year growth reflects the effectiveness of the state’s “market-mopping” strategy.
By positioning GoldBod as the primary off-taker at near-retail exchange rates, the government has dismantled the economic incentives that once fueled illicit outflows.
The report underscores that the additional 39.4 tonnes, valued conservatively at US$3.8 billion, provided a critical non-debt source of foreign exchange that bolstered national reserves to between US$11 billion and US$12 billion by the end of 2025.
This influx of liquidity played a pivotal role in stabilizing the Cedi and reducing the domestic cost of servicing external debt by approximately GHS 6.2 billion.
Economic Value vs. Trading Losses: An 18 to 1 Benefit Ratio
A central theme of the University of Ghana report is the clarification of the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) reported US$214 million trading loss, which the researchers argued has been widely misinterpreted by the public.
The study reveals that these “losses” are largely accounting translation effects a byproduct of buying gold at competitive market rates to deter smuggling while recording the inflows at the lower official interbank rate.
When weighed against the US$3.8 billion in formalized gold revenue, the benefit-to-cost ratio stands at a staggering 18 to 1. In fact, the report notes that formalizing just 2.2 tonnes of gold would have been sufficient to break even, making the actual capture of nearly 40 additional tonnes a high-return policy triumph.
Furthermore, the extractive sector’s shift toward formalization has provided a cheaper alternative to international borrowing.
The report estimates that if Ghana had sought to mobilize the US$10.8 billion generated through ASM exports via external loans, the country would have been saddled with annual interest payments ranging from US$756 million to US$1.08 billion.
By leveraging its own mineral wealth through GoldBod, the state has effectively bypassed these predatory interest rates, creating recurring savings that strengthen the broader macroeconomic framework and support disinflationary trends.
Strategic Impact on Exchange Rate Stability and Fiscal Health
The surge in ASM gold exports has acted as a primary buffer for the Ghanaian economy, providing the foreign exchange necessary to manage the national import bill, which saw a valuation reduction of GHS 50.6 billion in the first ten months of 2025.
This enhanced liquidity allowed the central bank to exceed IMF program assumptions regarding currency appreciation and reserve accumulation.
From an extractive perspective, the GoldBod model represents a departure from traditional “profit-first” state enterprises; instead, it functions as a sophisticated policy instrument designed for macroeconomic stabilization and the systematic erosion of the black market.
To sustain this momentum, the researchers recommend that the government maintain price competitiveness to prevent a resurgence of smuggling.
The researchers emphasize that any attempt to purchase gold at significant discounts would immediately drive miners back to informal channels, as seen during the 2021 withholding tax crisis.
By treating the program’s operational costs as a “quasi-fiscal expense” rather than a commercial failure, the report suggests that Ghana can continue to secure its external position, reduce reliance on costly debt, and maximize the developmental impact of its artisanal gold resources.
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