A new survey by Sanity Africa projects a decisive victory for former Assin Central Member of Parliament, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, in the upcoming New Patriotic Party presidential primaries, placing him well ahead of his closest challenger, former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.
The findings suggest that Agyapong commands broad appeal across key demographic groups, positioning him as the frontrunner as the party prepares to elect a flagbearer for the 2028 general elections.
“Between December and January 2026, we conducted a survey to assess the voting intentions of delegates of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) ahead of their upcoming presidential primaries. We use town hall meetings, stakeholder engagements—especially with policymakers and change agents—and the media to drive change
Sanity Africa
According to the organisation, the exercise forms part of its broader mandate to analyse governance trends, test the feasibility of campaign promises, and forecast electoral outcomes through citizen led democratic engagement.
Based on the overall results, the former Assin Central Member of Parliament, Kennedy Agyapong, is projected to secure 52 percent of the vote, while former Vice President and the party’s 2024 presidential candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, follows with 40 percent.
The remaining candidates trail at a considerable distance, with Dr Bryan Acheampong polling 7 percent, Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum recording 0.7 percent, and Ing Kwabena Agyei Agyepong securing 0.3 percent.
Distinct Patterns of Support
Sanity Africa noted that the gap between the two leading contenders reflects distinct patterns of support shaped by demographic and socio-economic factors. The survey explored how gender influences leadership preferences within the party.
Among male delegates, Dr Bawumia holds a narrow lead, attracting 48.9 percent support compared to Mr Agyapong’s 42.4 percent. Dr Bryan Acheampong ranks third with 6.1 percent, followed by Dr Adutwum and Ing Kwabena Agyepong.
However, the trend shifts markedly among female delegates, where Mr Agyapong enjoys a commanding advantage. He secures 57.8 percent support among women, while Dr Bawumia polls 37.1 percent, reinforcing Mr Agyapong’s overall lead in the aggregate results.
Religion also emerged as a significant factor shaping delegate preferences. Sanity Africa examined both the religious affiliation of voters and the perceived relevance of a candidate’s faith.
Among Muslim respondents, more than half indicated that religion plays an important role in their decision-making, with 52.8 percent expressing support for Dr Bawumia on that basis. Mr Agyapong follows closely in this group with 43.1 percent.
In contrast, respondents identifying as non-believers, atheists or traditionalists showed a stronger preference for Mr Agyapong, who attracted 55.1 percent support compared to Dr Bawumia’s 40.6 percent.
Christian delegates displayed a distinct pattern. A majority indicated that shared faith was a critical consideration in their choice of flagbearer, with 61.6 percent saying they would vote for Mr Agyapong.
A separate segment of Christian respondents stated that religion would not influence their decision, and this group leaned towards Dr Bawumia, who polled 31.3 percent among them. Despite his profile as a church elder, Dr Adutwum ranked third among Christian voters, trailing both Mr Agyapong and Dr Bawumia.
Age Contrasting Strengths
Age-based analysis further highlights contrasting strengths between the two leading contenders. Dr Bawumia appears to resonate more strongly with older delegates. Among those aged between 40 and 55, he leads with 49.7 percent, compared to Mr Agyapong’s 46.3 percent.
The gap widens among delegates aged 55 and above, where Dr Bawumia records 47.8 percent support against Mr Agyapong’s 38.6 percent. However, Mr Agyapong dominates among younger delegates under 40, securing 63 percent support compared to Dr Bawumia’s 33.5 percent.
In this category, Bryan Acheampong emerges as the preferred alternative beyond the two leading candidates. Employment status also plays a defining role in shaping voting intentions. Among delegates in full time employment, Dr Bawumia is the preferred candidate, polling 53.8 percent compared to Mr Agyapong’s 41.9 percent.
The pattern reverses among self-employed delegates, including traders, artisans, farmers, and business owners, where Mr Agyapong commands 55.5 percent support against Dr Bawumia’s 39.5 percent.
Mr Agyapong also leads decisively among students and unemployed delegates. Among students, 58.9 percent indicate support for him, compared to 32.7 percent for Dr Bawumia.
Similarly, 52.8 percent of unemployed delegates favour Mr Agyapong, while 39 percent support Dr Bawumia. Sanity Africa noted that these findings closely align with the age-based results, as younger delegates are more likely to fall within the student and unemployed categories. In its conclusion, Sanity Africa maintains that the data points to a clear advantage for Mr Agyapong heading into the primaries.
The organisation emphasised that while voting behaviour can evolve during campaigns, the current trends reflect a strong base of support anchored among women, youth, the self-employed, and economically vulnerable groups. It adds that the predictive model underpinning the survey will be published soon to provide further insight into the likely outcome of the race.
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