Mussa Dankwah, Founder of Global InfoAnalytics, warns that campaign teams’ broken promises, forgotten manifestos, and blunders may either make or break the chances of political parties in the 2024 General Elections.
According to an April 2024 national poll using a likely voters’ model, Mussa Dankwah pointed out that a small fraction of voters (11%) remain persuadable, indicating they may still change their mind about their intended vote just seven months before the election.
Additionally, 13% of voters claimed to be neutral, leaving room for potential swaying.
He indicated that the poll also revealed that a whopping 76% of voters say they are unlikely to change their mind, indicating that over two-thirds of voters have firm voting intentions, even as early as April 2024.
“The data suggests that the manifestoes, campaign stops, advertisements, etc. are intended to change the minds of those who are vulnerable to changing their minds and possibly those who are neutral”.
Mussa Dankwah
Furthermore, Mr. Dankwah noted that a deeper dive into the data reveals that among those with firm voting intentions, 56% plan to vote for John Mahama, 34% support Dr. Bawumia, and 7% will vote for Alan Kyeremanten.”
As such, Mahama holds a significant lead of 22% among voters with firm intentions, a 3% increase from his overall lead among all voters.
Moreover, Mussa Dankwah stressed that this cohort of voters is highly entrenched in their decisions, impervious to persuasion unless bombshell revelations about a candidate surface, and remains unmoved by campaign promises, making them the most challenging to sway.
According to Mussa Dankwah, among voters who are open to changing their minds, John Mahama holds a significant lead with 55% support, followed by Dr. Bawumia with 34% and Alan Kyeremanten with 9%. Mahama’s 21% lead in this group remains substantial and above the national average.
Mussa Dankwah further indicated that this group of voters is susceptible to persuasion, and their support can be swayed by campaign promises, advertisements, and political missteps.
As such he indicated that should a party’s campaign team commit blunders on the trail, its supporters may defect, making this group a crucial target for candidates seeking to gain an edge.
“They may be moved to decide not to vote for a candidate or become likely to change their voting intentions in the future, suggesting that repeats of gaffes could seal the fate of the candidate and could cost them the votes”.
Mussa Dankwah
Mahama Holds Slim Lead Among Persuadable Voters
Moreover, Mussa Dankwah highlighted that among voters who are most likely to change their minds, John Mahama holds a slim lead of 49%, closely followed by Dr. Bawumia with 40%, and Alan Kyeremanten with 8%.
Notably, John Mahama’s lead is narrowest among this group, with a margin of just 9%, indicating that Dr. Bawumia has significant support and is highly competitive among these persuadable voters.
“However, should this be seen as good news or bad news? The answer is NO. This data suggests that Dr. Bawumia is more vulnerable among this group of voters and that campaign gaffes and doubts created in their minds could make them move into the arms of his opponents”.
Mussa Dankwah
As such, Dankwah reiterated that this group is the most susceptible to persuasion and can be swayed by the campaign’s messaging, tactics, and performance, making them a crucial target for political influence and mobilization
He highlighted that if a significant number of voters fall into this category, it offers a glimmer of hope for the trailing candidate, as targeted campaign strategies can be employed to win them over and potentially flip the script, turning the tide of the race in their favor.
However, Mussa Dankwah cautioned that this crucial group constitutes only a small fraction of the electorate, merely 11% of total voters, which limits the potential impact of campaign efforts to sway them.
READ ALSO: Africa’s Economy To Balloon To $16.3 Trillion By 2050
