A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has taken effect, aiming to end more than a year of war in Lebanon.
As displaced families return to their damaged homes in parts of Lebanon, uncertainty looms over how long the fragile peace will last.
Mouin Rabbani, Co-editor of the online publication Jadaliyya and non-resident fellow at the Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies, has said that while Israel and Hezbollah are both declaring victory after the ceasefire, “both parties have sustained significant losses and modest achievements and the underlying issues have yet to be addressed.”
According to Rabbani, the “tenuous” ceasefire agreement is already facing challenges, such as the Israeli army imposing a curfew on southern Lebanon, adding also that “Hezbollah is not going to disappear from southern Lebanon.”
On Wednesday, November 27, 2024, Israeli forces issued an overnight curfew in southern Lebanon, warning that travelling south of the Litani River is “forbidden” until 05:00 GMT Thursday.
The Israeli military again warned people in Lebanon early Thursday not to return to their homes in the south of the country, this time publishing a map and naming specific villages along the border with northern Israel that are off-limits.
Naming the 10 Lebanese villages in a post on social media, the Israeli military’s Arabic-language spokesman, Avichay Adraee said the locations of the villages demarcate a line where residents are prohibited from entering.
“Until further notice, you are prohibited from moving south to the line of the following villages and their surroundings, and also within the villages themselves: Shebaa, al-Habbariyeh, Marjayoun, Arnoun, Yahmor, Qantara, Chaqra, Barashit, Yatar, al-Mansouri.
“Anyone who moves south of this line – puts himself in danger.”
Avichay Adraee
More broadly, Rabbani said that even if “this cessation of hostilities agreement formally de-links Lebanon from Gaza,” Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza remains key to wider peace in the region.
He opined that the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel could last for a few weeks or even months, but given the broader context and the continuing genocidal war in Gaza, “I don’t think it’s sustainable unless there are broader changes in the region.”
Meanwhile, in an interview, US envoy, Amos Hochstein dismissed the idea that Israel could have achieved a better deal than the current ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“Yes, there are fantasy deals that are utopia, where you get a ceasefire agreement with a security zone etc. But those won’t ever happen.
“There will never be an agreement that also has Israel as an occupying force in another country, that country will not sign that deal.”
Amos Hochstein
He added that if Israel insisted on a demilitarised zone inside Lebanon “then you are there as an occupier.”
Glimmer Of Hope In A Tense Region
Nonetheless, United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres expressed that the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is “the first ray of hope” in the regional conflict after months of escalation.
He said in a short televised statement during a visit to his hometown, Lisbon, “It is essential that those who signed the ceasefire commitment respect it in full,” adding that the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon was ready to monitor the ceasefire.
He also reiterated his call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
He called the agreement a moment of great importance, especially for civilians “who were paying an enormous price of this spreading conflict.”
Separately, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) stressed that the ceasefire must be upheld “on all levels of command” to ensure respite for affected civilians.
In a statement, it said that the agreement must also facilitate the uninterrupted flow of humanitarian aid.
The ICRC added that whilst the agreement brings “a glimmer of hope,” the region remains tense and the humanitarian situation in Gaza unacceptable.
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