Ghana’s economic trajectory in 2025 is expected to be significantly influenced by a rebound in household spending, according to a new report by Fitch Solutions.
The UK-based research and analytics firm projects that private consumption will grow by 4.0%, contributing 3.2 percentage points to the country’s overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. This surge in consumer activity is largely attributed to easing inflationary pressures and improved macroeconomic stability.
Fitch Solutions forecasts that inflation will moderate from an average of 22.9% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2025, largely driven by favorable international market trends and domestic policy interventions.
“We forecast that inflation will moderate from an average of 22.9% in 2024 to 18.8% in 2025, supported by lower global oil prices that will enable Ghana’s National Petroleum Authority to contain increases in, or even reduce, retail pump prices.”
Fitch Solutions
The reduction in petroleum product prices is expected to provide significant relief to both households and businesses by lowering transportation and production costs across various sectors.
Improved Food Supply to Reinforce Disinflation Trend
In addition to the influence of global oil prices, Fitch’s Agribusiness team expects enhanced food supply chains to further stabilize prices of key food imports, including wheat and rice. These are staples in the Ghanaian diet and carry significant weight in the consumer price index.
“In addition, our Agribusiness team anticipates that improved supply will drive down the costs of foodstuffs that Ghana relies on – including wheat and rice – further helping to ease inflationary pressures.”
Fitch Solutions
This is good news for consumers, who have had to grapple with elevated food prices over the past few years due to supply chain disruptions and currency depreciation.
Another factor expected to reinforce inflation moderation is the projected stability of the Ghanaian cedi, supported by elevated gold prices which will bolster the Bank of Ghana’s reserves. This will help mitigate the impact of external shocks and control imported inflation. “Moreover, elevated gold prices will bolster the Bank of Ghana (BoG)’s reserves, supporting the cedi and contributing to exchange rate stability, which will limit imported inflation,” Fitch noted.
A stable cedi means lower costs for imported goods, ranging from raw materials to finished products, further easing the burden on consumers and businesses alike.
Household Consumption Regains Momentum
With these inflationary and exchange rate dynamics playing out favorably, household consumption is poised to remain the central engine of Ghana’s economic growth in the coming quarters. “Household consumption will remain the engine of economic growth in the coming quarters as inflationary pressures ease,” Fitch stated.
The firm expects consumer confidence to rebound as inflation decelerates, providing more purchasing power to households and enabling them to increase their expenditure on goods and services.
Fitch Solutions also referenced the ongoing Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is set to conclude in May 2026. Historically, the conclusion of such programs in Ghana has led to a loosening of fiscal policy, which could further stimulate domestic demand.
“Following the conclusion of the previous IMF programme in 2019, the budget deficit widened to 4.1% of GDP, from 3.4% in 2018. This contributed to an increase in total domestic demand growth from 5.7% to 7.3% over the same period.”
Fitch Solutions
If history repeats itself, the post-IMF era could see the government ramp up spending to meet political and social demands, which could add a new layer of support to household and private sector consumption.
Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions expects the disinflation trend to continue into 2026, with inflation forecast to average 15.2%, which will further underpin consumer activity and sustain economic momentum.
While challenges remain, including potential fiscal slippages and external vulnerabilities, Fitch’s outlook paints a cautiously optimistic picture of Ghana’s economic future.
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