The Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) is gearing up for an exciting year in 2025, with market analysts at Databank Brokerage Limited forecasting a remarkable 50% gain in the GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI).
In their latest market outlook, titled Charting the Course for Sustainable Growth, Databank predicts that banking stocks will spearhead the rally, buoyed by strong earnings, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and renewed investor confidence.
Following a volatile few years, the equities market has shown resilience, recording a 28.08% recovery in 2024 after a 12.38% loss in 2022.
Databank’s forecast suggests this positive momentum will carry over into 2025, driven by broad-based growth across key sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG).
The GSE-CI, which tracks the performance of listed stocks, is projected to close 2025 at approximately 6,850 points, marking a 45% gain, with a potential margin of ±500 basis points.
According to Databank’s report, “We expect the ongoing rally in equities to continue into 2025, driven by more favorable market conditions and continued recovery in corporate earnings.”
Banking Stocks at the Forefront
The banking sector is expected to lead the charge in 2025, capitalizing on its strong recovery in 2024. Following the challenges posed by the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP), banks demonstrated remarkable resilience last year, with the Financial Stock Index closing 2024 up 15%. Notable gainers included GCB Bank, which surged 76.5%, and Access Bank, which grew by 27%.
Databank analysts attribute the sector’s anticipated performance to several factors. First, attractive yields on short-term government securities are expected to boost banks’ interest income, driving earnings growth. Additionally, the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) new cash reserve requirements are likely to encourage increased lending as economic conditions improve.
Dividend payouts, which returned in 2024, are also projected to attract more investor interest. Standard Chartered Bank’s 2023 dividend set a positive precedent, and other banks are expected to follow suit in 2025.
“Barring a significant downturn, we expect the banking sector to do well in 2025 – supported by strong earnings growth, probable return of dividend payout, and favorable economic conditions.”
Databank
Valuations and Investment Opportunities
Despite its recent recovery, the banking sector still offers compelling entry opportunities for investors. Many banking stocks are trading below their book values, presenting attractive valuations.
Preliminary financial reports from 2024 highlight significant operational improvements, with banks recording a 33% year-on-year growth in after-tax profits for the first nine months. This was driven by a 54% increase in non-funded income and improved asset quality.
However, credit risk remains a concern. The non-performing loans (NPL) ratio rose to 22.7% in 2024 from 18.3% the previous year, according to data from the Bank of Ghana. While this presents a challenge, the sector’s robust asset growth – up 42.4% to GH¢367.2 billion – underscores its overall resilience.
Beyond banking, other sectors are also expected to contribute to the GSE’s rally in 2025. The telecommunications sector, led by market giant MTN Ghana, is poised for continued growth, driven by the expansion of data and mobile money services.
The potential rollout of 5G technology further enhances the sector’s prospects. Databank analysts noted that MTN Ghana remains an attractive investment, trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 5.3x.
In the FMCG sector, companies like Unilever Ghana, Guinness Ghana Breweries, and Fan Milk are set to shine. Guinness is expected to benefit from price adjustments and increased local content in production, while Fan Milk leverages new product lines and cost-saving measures.
The industrial sector also holds promise, with TotalEnergies projecting an 18% upside for 2025. This growth will be fueled by aggressive marketing strategies and a recovery in the mining sector.
While the outlook for 2025 is undeniably bullish, analysts caution that political and economic uncertainties could pose risks. Ghana’s transition to a new administration following the 2024 elections may create short-term volatility. Nonetheless, the resilience demonstrated by the market in recent years offers a solid foundation for sustained growth.
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