The Ashanti Region, traditionally a stronghold for the New Patriotic Party (NPP), is showing signs of shifting political dynamics ahead of the 2024 general elections.
Recent opinion polls by Global InfoAnalytics indicate a significant shift in voter sentiment, raising concerns about the NPP’s ability to secure a decisive victory in the upcoming elections.
According to the August poll, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the NPP’s presidential candidate, leads with 65% of the vote in the Ashanti Region, followed by former President John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) with 24%.
Alan Kyeremanten, an independent candidate and leader for the Movement for Change on the other hand garnered 9%, while Nana Kwame Bediako of the New Force received 1%, and other candidates collectively secured 1%.
While Dr Bawumia’s lead appears comfortable, a comparative analysis with previous polls reveals a troubling trend for the ruling party.
“Compared to the July 4th poll which was conducted days before Dr Mathew Opoku Prempeh was announced as the running mate for Dr Bawumia, which showed DMB at 73%, and JDM at 15%, AKK at 9%, NKB at 2%, and the rest at 1%, the new poll points to a loss of momentum in the region as DMB dropped by 7.6% and Nana Bediako, at 1.3%. JDM gains in the poll came from DMB and Nana Bediako”.
Global InfoAnalytics August Poll, Ashanti Region
This drop in support for Dr Bawumia is particularly significant given the historical voting patterns in the Ashanti Region.
Comparative Analysis with 2020 Elections
Comparing these figures to the 2020 elections, where President Akufo-Addo and Vice Dr Bawumia’s ticket garnered 73% of the vote and former President John Mahama and Professor Opoku Agyemang’s ticket 25%, indicates a decline in support for the NPP.
According to the latest poll, former President Mahama and Professor Opoku Agyemang’s support remains largely unchanged, while Dr Bawumia and Dr Opoku Prempeh’s tickets see an 8% drop.
The demographic analysis of the poll also suggests former President John Dramani Mahama’s gains span all age groups, with the most significant increase among voters aged 64 and above.
“Analysis of the poll shows that during the period, JDM gained nearly 6% floating voters and Alan Kyeremanten gained 13%. DMB and NKB lost 16% and 2% of floating voters respectively”.
Global InfoAnalytics August Poll, Ashanti Region
Voter Sentiment and Approval Ratings
Moreover, the poll highlighted mixed perceptions of the current administration in the Ashanti Region. While 56% of respondents approved of President Akufo-Addo’s performance, 42% expressed disapproval, with 2% expressing no opinion.
Additionally, 48% of voters believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, with only 47% expressing optimism about the future, with 5% expressing no opinion.
The Role of Dr. Mathew Opoku Prempeh
Again, the selection of Dr. Matthew Opoku Prempeh as Dr Bawumia’s running mate has had a notable impact on voter intentions.
In the poll, 58% of respondents indicated they would vote for the NPP because of Dr Prempeh, a slight decrease from the 62% reported in the July 4th poll.
Meanwhile, 29% are unlikely to support the NPP due to his selection, an increase from 21% previously.
This suggests that while Dr Prempeh has a positive influence on some voters, his selection has also alienated others, highlighting the complexity of voter dynamics in the region.
When asked who would perform better as Vice President, 62.45% of voters favored Dr Matthew Opoku Prempeh of the ruling party, while 20.67% preferred Professor Naana Jane Opoku Agyemang of the NDC. However, 10.52% chose neither, and 6.37% expressed no opinion.
The August polls from Global InfoAnalytics signal a critical concerns for the NPP in the Ashanti Region. The Ashanti Region’s importance to the NPP cannot be overstated.
Political analysts and pollsters predict that the party needs to secure at least 75% of the vote in this stronghold to ensure victory in the December polls.
The recent poll results, however, cast a shadow over these prospects, indicating potential voter apathy and shifting allegiances.
With voter support showing signs of erosion and growing competition from the opposition, the ruling party faces an urgent need to reassess and reinforce its campaign strategy ahead of the December 7 polls.
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