The results of a comprehensive nationwide exit poll conducted across all 276 constituencies by leading poll firm, Global InfoAnalytics present an illuminating picture of Ghana’s 2024 general elections.
The findings underscore the significant role floating voters played in the election, effectively sealing the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) fate as predicted in pre-election polling.
The poll, with a robust sample size of 21,159 respondents and an impressive 94% success rate, provides valuable insights into voter behaviour and its decisive impact on the election’s outcome.
This exercise, which employed a random probability sampling method, achieved a 99% confidence level and a margin of error of just 1.0%.
The poll revealed that the pre-election voter alignments were 35% for NPP, 33% for the National Democratic Congress (NDC), 20% for floating voters, 3% for other parties, and 9% for those not disclosing their preferences.
However, actual election day figures showed a slight shift, with 41% identifying as NPP voters, 40% as NDC, 15% as floating voters, and 4% aligning with other parties.
“On how supporters of the parties and others voted, the poll shows that 7% of NPP voters voted for JDM, 90% voted for DMB and 3% for other candidates. The poll also shows that 8% of NDC voted for DMB, 90% for JDM and 2% for other candidates.
“However, JDM scored a decisive win among floating voters as he carried them with 58%, DMB 29%, a whopping 30% margin while others received 13%.
Global InfoAnalytics
This overwhelming support from floating voters, which aligns with Global InfoAnalytics’ pre-election projections, tipped the scales in favour of the NDC candidate.
Ashanti Region: A Unique Political Landscape
The Ashanti Region, traditionally the NPP’s stronghold, presented mixed results. The exit poll showed 64% of respondents identified as NPP voters, 22% as NDC, 8% as floating voters, and 5% as supporters of other parties.
While Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia retained 95% of the ruling New Patriotic Party’s base, 3% of its loyalists voted for President-Elect John Dramani Mahama, and 2% opted for other candidates.
Among National Democratic Congress voters, 89% supported President-Elect John Dramani Mahama, with 9% defecting to Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia and 2% choosing other candidates.
“However, among Ashanti floating voters, the poll shows DMB and JDM split the votes, 36% apiece while 28% voted for other candidates. For those who support other parties, 10% voted for JDM, 11% for DMB and 79% for other candidates.”
Global InfoAnalytics
This data reveals a notable divergence in the Ashanti Region, where the influence of floating voters and a fraction of the NPP and NDC base significantly shaped the results.
President-Elect Mahama’s ability to secure 36% of floating votes in an NPP-dominated region underscores the challenges facing the ruling party.
Disunity and Religious Dynamics in the Ashanti Region
Interestingly, the poll highlighted a division within the NDC in the Ashanti Region, with 9% of its voters casting ballots for Dr Bawumia. This internal strife was traced to NDC supporters from traditional and other religious backgrounds, not Muslims as earlier speculated.
Dr Bawumia according to the poll enjoyed higher support among these groups compared to Christians and Muslims, indicating an underlying shift in voter alignment within the region.
The 2024 elections have reiterated the pivotal role of floating voters in determining electoral outcomes. For the NPP, the erosion of loyalty within its base and the inability to attract a significant portion of floating voters spelled doom.
This reinforces the long-standing notion that elections in Ghana are increasingly being decided by the middle ground—voters who prioritize performance over party loyalty.
The Ashanti Region’s results further suggest that the NPP must reevaluate its strategy, particularly in its strongholds, where internal divisions and the allure of opposition narratives have weakened its dominance.
For the NDC, JDM’s strong performance among floating voters and his penetration into NPP strongholds offer a blueprint for future campaigns: appeal to the undecided, address internal divisions proactively, and consolidate support across diverse voter demographics.
The Global InfoAnalytics exit poll is a testament to the growing sophistication of Ghanaian voters. The NPP’s declining appeal among floating voters and segments of its base underscores the party’s need for introspection and strategic recalibration.
For the NDC, the victory provides both an opportunity and a challenge to sustain its appeal among the Ghanaian electorate.
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