The latest poll by Global InfoAnalytics, conducted from October 28 to November 2, 2024, has indicated that the ruling party’s candidate and current vice president, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, trailing the main opposition leader, John Dramani Mahama, 52.7% to 40.1%.
According to the survey published just weeks before the election Nana Kwame Bediako of the New Force garners 4.0% support, while Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen of the Movement for Change receives 1.5%.
Other candidates from the smaller political parties and independent runners collectively account for 0.7% of the support of Ghanaian voters.
“The poll suggests Nana Kwame Bediako is losing ground after his astronomical rise in the polls in recent times. The polling average for the fourth week shows JDM at 52.5%, DMB, at 40.2%, NKB, at 4.9%, AKK, at 1.7%, and others, at 0.7%.
“The poll also shows that the proportion of NPP voters defecting to vote for John Dramani Mahama has reduced and Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia appears to consolidate his base but still lags behind John Dramani Mahama on party loyalty”.
Global InfoAnalytics
The polls indicated that Dr. Bawumia is losing support among NDC and undecided voters, suggesting he may need to rely heavily on his core base to remain competitive in the upcoming elections.
John Mahama, on the other hand, enjoys the backing of an impressive 98% of NDC voters, while Dr. Bawumia has the support of 95% of NPP voters.
According to Global InfoAnalytics, floating voters, a crucial demographic in Ghana’s elections, are significantly favoring John Mahama, with 67% support, which could influence the final outcome.
The polls also revealed that 62% of voters who do not disclose their party affiliations back Mahama, indicating a potential shift in voter sentiment.
Additionally, the polling average showed that John Dramani Mahama leads in thirteen regions, whereas Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia leads in three.
Accordingly, Global InfoAnalytics pointed out that the Ashanti and Eastern regions continue to pose significant challenges for the ruling party, with average support of 63% and 50%, respectively, in these crucial areas, potentially jeopardizing their chances of re-election.
Bawumia Struggles to Attract 2020 Nana Addo Supporters
Furthermore, the poll indicated that Dr. Bawumia’s inability to attract voters who supported Nana Addo in the 2020 election remains his greatest challenge.
The data showed that 21% of those voters now intend to support John Dramani Mahama, highlighting a significant shift in voter loyalty.
Among first-time voters, Mahama leads with 50%, demonstrating his strong appeal to younger demographics, while Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia follows with 39%.
Nana Kwame Bediako receives 11% support, indicating that he has some traction among this group, although he still lags behind the other candidates.
“The Economy, jobs, and education remain the top concerns for voters with 54% of voters saying their economic condition has gotten worse compared to a year ago, only 25% said it is better and 21% said it is the same.
“On the direction of the country, 65% of voters believe it is headed in the wrong direction, 26% say the right direction, and 9% did not have an opinion”.
Global InfoAnalytics
According to the polls, 60% of voters disapprove of the president’s job performance, while 34% express approval and 6% have no opinion on the matter.
This indicates a significant level of dissatisfaction among the electorate.
Global InfoAnalytics also noted that regarding the Speaker of Parliament’s decision to declare four seats vacant, 42% of voters support this action, while 36% oppose it, leaving 22% undecided.
This division suggests a contentious political atmosphere surrounding the Speaker’s authority.
Additionally, the polls revealed that a substantial 84% of voters have already made up their minds about their choices in the upcoming election, indicating a strong commitment to their preferences.
Meanwhile, 9% of voters remain likely to change their decisions, and 7% are neutral, reflecting some level of uncertainty within the electorate.
