Mussa Dankwah, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has revealed that data from the 2024 elections indicates a significant shift in voter participation compared to the 2020 elections.
According to the analysis, 40% of individuals who voted in 2020 but chose not to participate in 2024 were supporters of the New Patriotic Party (NPP). Floating voters made up 29% of this group, while 8% were affiliated with the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
Additionally, 3% of the voters were aligned with other political parties. Notably, 20% of those who withheld their party affiliations are believed to be predominantly NDC supporters, according to the data.
This pattern highlights notable trends in voter behavior and party dynamics between the two election cycles.
“Nearly 2.1 million of 2020 voters did not vote. 579k of these were from the Ashanti region. The data also suggests that 250k of these 579k were NPP sympathizers, 50k were NDC, 236k were floating voters and 43k were voters who do not disclose their party affiliations, the majority of who are deemed to be NDC sympathizers”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah further elaborated on the national voter data, revealing that out of the 2.1 million voters who participated in the 2024 elections, a significant portion were affiliated with the New Patriotic Party (NPP), numbering nearly 834,000.
In comparison, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) accounted for 168,000 voters.
The floating voter (FV) group made up a substantial 603,000, while voters aligned with other political parties totaled 56,000.
Additionally, approximately 417,000 voters did not disclose their party affiliations, leaving their political leanings unclear.
This breakdown underscores the diverse political landscape of the electorate and offers a clearer picture of voter distribution across various political entities in the country.
Ashanti and Eastern Regions Contribute 47% of Voter Drop, Says Mussa Dankwah
Mussa Dankwah also pointed out that the Ashanti and Eastern regions played a significant role in the overall decline in voter participation, contributing to 47% of the total drop in turnout.
This suggests that these two regions, which are traditionally strongholds for certain political parties, experienced a noticeable decrease in voter engagement compared to previous elections.
The data from these regions highlights potential shifts in voter behavior and political allegiance, further emphasizing regional dynamics that could have impacted the outcome of the 2024 elections.
“The question is, had the NPP voters voted, would it have changed the outcome of the elections? The ANSWER IS NO.
“The data shows that 17% of NPP voters who voted for in the 2024 elections voted for JDM, 68% of floating voters voted for JDM, and 68% of voters who did not disclose their party affiliations voted for John Dramani Mahama”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah also highlighted that the poll reveals a clear trend in voter preferences among the two major political parties.
Specifically, 79% of voters who supported the New Patriotic Party (NPP) in the 2020 elections cast their votes for the party’s candidate, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, in the 2024 elections.
In contrast, a striking 92% of voters who had previously supported the NDC in 2020 chose to vote for the NDC’s candidate, John Mahama, in the most recent election.
This underscored the strong party loyalty among NPP and NDC supporters, as well as the continued dominance of these political figures in their respective parties’ voter bases.
He further observed that if voter turnout had been higher in the 2024 elections, the gap between the candidates would likely have been even more significant than the 1.7 million margin reported.
In fact, Dankwah suggested that the gap could have exceeded 2.4 million, pointing to the potential for a much larger disparity in the final result had more voters participated. “Therefore, the lower turnout for me is a blessing for the NPP”.
This highlights the importance of voter engagement and turnout in shaping the overall electoral outcome, suggesting that higher participation could have potentially altered the dynamics of the race even further.
