According to a recent survey by Global InfoAnalytics, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) has experienced a significant drop in voter support in the Greater Accra Region, coinciding with the announcement of Dr. Matthew Opoku Prempeh as Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s running mate.
The survey carried out following the nomination of Dr. Matthew Opoku Prempeh, also known as NAPO, revealed a significant drop in support for the NPP in six key constituencies in Greater Accra, namely Tema Central, Ablekuma West, Ablekuma North, Ayawaso Central, Ayawaso West Wuogon, and Ledzokuku, indicating a substantial shift in voter sentiment in these areas.
Mussa Dankwa, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, pointed out this trend as a significant challenge for the NPP and emphasized the need for the party to take proactive steps to address and reverse this decline in voter support.
“If you look at this, in Greater Accra, those who said they’ll be influenced to vote for the NPP, 49% of the NPP said they’ll vote for the party, 42% NPP voters said they’ll not be influenced in the Greater Accra.
“When it comes to the floating voters, 9% said they’ll be influenced and 74% said they’ll not be influenced, that is worrying. If you don’t make a good impression among the floating voters, you are done.”
Mussa Dankwa
Mussa Dankwah emphasized that elections are driven by data and the ability to interpret and understand polls, rather than emotions, and acknowledged that Ghanaians are still developing their understanding of this aspect of the electoral process, but can continue to improve with time.
He observed that modern elections have become a science, enabling predictive analysis that allows for foresight and a glimpse into potential outcomes before they actually occur.
Mussa Dankwah clarified that polls do not predict election outcomes with certainty, but rather indicate potential outcomes within a specific range of probability, subject to a margin of error and a confidence level.
Understanding Polls Crucial For Informed Voting
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah emphasized that Global InfoAnalytics’ constituency polls are comprehensive, covering all electoral areas, and warned that disregarding these polls without a valid reason could be risky and potentially costly for those who do so.
He emphasized the importance of voters grasping the significance of polls and acquiring the skills to accurately interpret and understand their results, in order to make informed decisions at the ballot box.
“Please, make an effort to see how analysts present data on BBC, CNN, or SkyNews on elections. There is no middle ground when you are speaking to data and that does not make analysts partisan, Labour, Conservatives, Democrats, or Republicans”.
“Watch more international media, at least you will see different angles of reporting the polls. But if you think it is someone’s paymaster job, then please ignore them and don’t be hypocritical to work with them and come and insult us in public, which is what is currently happening. That is dishonesty and hypocrisy”.
Mussa Dankwa
Mussa Dankwah cautioned politicians against complacency, urging them not to focus solely on the margin of victory in polls, assuming they are secure or that their opponent cannot bridge the gap, as this can lead to a false sense of security and potentially jeopardize their chances.
Instead, Dankwah urged politicians to adopt a more strategic perspective, prioritizing the margin of lead and swing votes to better understand the dynamics of the election.
Let’s take a close look at Ablekuma West, Ursula Owusu the race in 2020 by 6,630 votes, representing a 9.7% margin. Divide the margin by 2 and you will get a swing of 4.9%, meaning, if 4.9% of voters who voted for her in 2020 switch their votes in 2024, she will be out of parliament”.
Mussa Dankwa
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