The Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Musa Danquah has disclosed that the ruling New Patriotic Party and its flagbearer Dr Mahamudu Bawumia face potential challenges due to a shift in support of its core supporters according to its December, 2023 survey.
Mr Musa Danquah indicated that, analysis of its comprehensive survey, which sampled 6,200 voters, revealed a substantial shift in allegiance among supporters of the ruling New Patriotic Party to the opposition National Democratic Congress.
“We present an analysis of December 2023 polls from the perspective of party affiliations of voters who voted in the 2020 elections. Respondents were asked whether they voted in the 2020 elections and if so, how they voted their party affiliation, and how they intend to vote come December 2024 (exit poll three years late)”.
Musa Danquah, Executive Director, Global InfoAnalytics
According to him, while 87 percent of the ruling New Patriotic Party supporters voted for President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo in the 2020 elections, only 69% now intend to vote for the party’s flagbearer Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in the upcoming 2024 elections, marking an 18% decline.
Mr Danquah further noted that surprisingly, 19% of the ruling New Patriotic Party’s supporters intend to cast their ballots for the opposition National Democratic Congress flagbearer, John Dramani Mahama, compared to 11% who voted for Mr. Mahama during the 2020 election, representing a significant 7% increase.
He also indicated that 12% of the governing New Patriotic Party’s supporters expressed their intention to vote for the Movement for Change Founder and Leader, Alan Kyerematen, and other candidates, signaling a notable 10% surge, compared to the previous election.
Furthermore, the Executive Director for Global Info Analytics, Musa Danquah revealed that for supporters of the opposition National Democratic Congress, the data indicates a strengthening of support for John Dramani Mahama.
He stated that while 91% of the National Democratic Congress supporters voted for Mr Mahama in the 2020 general elections, a remarkable 96% now intend to vote for the former President in the upcoming elections, reflecting a 5% increase.
Conversely, Mr Danquah disclosed that only 3% of the National Democratic Congress supporters plan to vote for the ruling New Patriotic Party flagbearer, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, marking a 6% decrease. He also noted that only 1% of the opposition National Democratic Congress supporters expressed their preference for Mr Alan Kyerematen and other candidates.
Floating Voters Determine New Front-Runners
Moreover, Musa Danquah revealed that among floating voters, the survey showcased a significant shift in preferences among the two leading political parties.
He recounted that while 66% of floating supporters voted for President Akufo-Addo in the 2020 general elections, only 22% plan to vote for the ruling party’s flagbearer, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in 2024.
However, Mr Danquah indicated that the National Democratic Congress flagbearer John Dramani Mahama emerged as a strong contender among floating voters, with 58% intending to cast their ballots for the former President while 20% expressed their support for the leader of Movement for Change, Alan Kyerematen, and other candidates.
Among those who support other smaller parties, Mr. Danquah revealed that while 55% voted for President Akufo-Addo, with 10% voting for former President John Dramani Mahama and 38% voting for other candidates in the 2020 general election, this time around, only 4% said they will vote for Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, with 17% intending to vote for John Mahama whiles 79% plans to vote for Alan Kyerematen and other candidates.
In addition, Mr Danquah disclosed that for those who did not disclose their party affiliations, the survey revealed intriguing insights.
According to him, while 61% voted for President Akufo-Addo in the previous elections, only 21% now intend to vote for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in 2024 while John Dramani Mahama gained significant traction among this group, with 46% expressing their support for him with 33% planning to vote for Alan Kyerematen and other candidates.
The Executive Director for Global InfoAnalytics, Musa Danquah, emphasized the significance of these findings, highlighting the monumental task facing the incumbent party as its voter preferences undergo substantial changes.
He admonished political stakeholders to carefully consider these shifts in formulating their strategies for the upcoming elections.
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