A CDD-Ghana fellow, Dr John Osae-Kwapong, has revealed that the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP) government is facing a difficult political terrain in the country.

According to him, this may pose a threat to its incumbency come the 2024 elections if matters of the economy and challenges confronting Ghanaians are not addressed.

Dr Osae-Kwapong indicated that per the polls conducted by the Global Info Analytics which saw the President’s approval by region in the Greater Accra scoring 13%, Ashanti 33% and Eastern 22%, it is unlikely things will go in favor of the incumbent during election 2024.

“So, for me, what it signals and points to is the difficult political terrain that incumbent faces. Now, 2024 is two years away and we always say that in politics, one day is even a very long time but there is no denying that the signals you see coming from Afrobarometer and Global Info Analytics poll is that the incumbent is facing a very difficult political terrain as it goes into election 2024.”
Dr John Osae-Kwapong

In comparison to the 2016 political terrain, Dr Osae-Kwapong highlighted that in some of the polls conducted then, the “incumbent faced a very difficult political terrain as well” albeit in 2020, it wasn’t so difficult for the incumbent. However, he explained that this time round, “you are seeing that the terrain is very difficult, the President is on his way out [and] he’s not running for re-election”.

“I will think that for the purposes of legacy, you will always want to leave office on the high.”
Dr John Osae-Kwapong

The CDD fellow questioned who “pays the price” for the numbers churned out in the poll. He emphasized that these early signals seem to show that the party indeed “may pay a price for it but at the same time between now and 2024, will things change, will optimism get better, will people feel better about the direction of the country?”

Dr Osae-Kwapong stated that the NPP government has the capacity to turn things around particularly with the support the country is getting from the IMF. He expressed optimism that in two years, there will be some positive turnaround.

“Now, I don’t know how significant that is going to be and I also don’t know how significant that is also going to be in terms of changing the perceptions and feelings of the voter.”
Dr John Osae-Kwapong

Validity of Global Info Analytics polls

Commenting on the survey by Global Info Analytics which further showed that 76% of Ghanaians are of the view the country is headed in the wrong direction, Dr Osae-Kwapong revealed that if public sentiments on the economy, agitations from organised labour, soaring food prices and transportation are anything to go by, “you can see why in such a poll, discontent will be captured and reflected”.

Additionally, he indicated that especially due to the use of randomisation in the methodology of the survey, it reveals that the polls is getting as close to a representative sample as possible.

“… If what Afrobarometer had found and what Global Info Analytics had were at variance, then you can start getting worried about it. But once you see some convergence around common themes, then you can be rest assured that the methodology is as good as it can get, recognizing that again no methodology is 100% soundproof.”
Dr John Osae-Kwapong