A report by Nicholas Westcott, a Research Associate, Centre for International Studies and Diplomacy, SOAS, University of London, has quizzed whether Africa would benefit from standing aside, urging talks, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues and the world economy is irreparably damaged.
According to the report, the longer the war continues, the worse the economic damage to Africa and the greater the risk that conflict breaks out in African countries themselves. Russia will not stop the war until forced to do so, by arms or by bankruptcy, the report stated.
“If African countries mean what they say about respecting the sovereignty and building a fairer international system, they need to step in, not step away. But they also need to be clearer to western countries about their take. To stay neutral risks signaling African weakness and marginalization in international affairs. A confident, assertive, self-interested, and united Africa would say: ‘Stop this: it is wrecking all of us.’ Sitting on the fence helps no one, especially when the fence will inevitably one-day collapse.”
Nicholas Westcott
The Ukraine war has compounded the economic problems caused by the pandemic. Both the International Monetary Fund and UNECA have emphasized the economic damage to African countries. On top of food price inflation and Africa’s dependence on food supplies from Ukraine and Russia, the World Food Programme has highlighted the shortage of emergency supplies to feed the starving in drought-struck eastern Africa.
The 20 percent to 40 percent increase in oil and gas prices has hit consumers, manufacturers, and farmers through the cost of fertilizer. And as revenue falls and demand for government spending rises, there is a growing risk of debt distress. This is true even of previously stable countries like Ghana.
Nicholas noted that this economic pressure, particularly rising food prices, may provoke protest and precipitate political instability and conflict across the continent.
It was after all food price rises that stimulated the Arab Spring in 2011. Sri Lanka’s current foreign exchange crisis shows how politically dangerous it can be, the report stated.
“The war in Ukraine has likewise diverted global political attention from Africa’s problems and made it harder for the UN to lead international peace-making efforts. But, unless the African Union is willing and able to step in, the lack of global attention risks more African conflicts getting out of hand.”
Nicholas Westcott
African governments need to do more
According to the report, the Ukraine crisis significantly increases political stress and potential conflict throughout Africa. Economic, political, and social stress levels are already high due to climate change and demographic growth. Countries like Nigeria and Mozambique and those in the Horn of Africa and Sahel have latent or actual conflicts that will be exacerbated.
African governments are already appealing for more economic support to mitigate these stresses. But many donor countries are now diverting more money to defense, and it would be quicker and more effective to tackle the root of the problem: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the report stated.
Until now, African governments seem increasingly reluctant to put pressure on Russia. As members of the United Nations Security Council, Ghana, Kenya, and Gabon have publicly condemned Russia’s actions in a vote cast during an emergency session on 25 February 2022, but that alone isn’t enough. While the reasons for the invasion are many, the conflict is already taking its toll on an already fragile global economy barely recovering from one of the worst economic downturns since the Great Depression.
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