In their latest climate report, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) puts the planet on the brink of irreversible global warming.

According to WMO, the average global temperatures have a fifty-fifty chance of temporarily reaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels during at least one of the next five years. The likelihood of getting this warming threshold, therefore increasing the risk of climate-related disasters, grows over time, the report revealed.

It also found that between 2022 and 2026, there is a 93 percent chance that the world will see the hottest year on record – dislodging 2016 from the top spot. The WMO says there is also a 93 percent chance that global average temperatures over the next five years will be higher than in the previous five years.

The report disclosed WMO uses expertise from internationally acclaimed climate scientists and the world’s best prediction systems to produce information that policymakers can use.

The 1.5 degree Celsius figure is not some random statistic

“The report shows that with a high level of scientific skill, we are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change,” explains WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas.

“The 1.5°C figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and the entire planet.”
Professor Taalas

Average global temperatures are thought to have been around 1.1 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline in 2021. The risk of climate-related disasters for humans and nature will increase if this rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Meanwhile, the climate risks at 1.5 degrees Celsius is still lower than if we reach 2 degrees Celsius, meaning limiting warming should be a priority, whatever the global average, the Report revealed.

The report’s lead author, Dr. Leon Hermanson, also explains that a year above 1.5 degrees Celsius doesn’t mean we’ve permanently breached the iconic Paris Agreement threshold. It does, however, reveal we are “edging ever closer” to a situation where it could become the norm.

In April, the IPCC’s latest landmark report on climate change said that to stay within 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming by 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions needed to drop by 43 percent. To avoid the worst effects of climate change, emissions need to be halved.

Temperatures will rise, as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases

“We are at a crossroads. The decisions we make now can secure a liveable future. We have the tools and know-how required to limit warming,” IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee said at the time.

The IPCC report said that we’re not yet on track to keep global warming below dangerous levels. But, with cheaper renewable energy, action from polluting industries, and other firm climate commitments, it’s not too late to stop the worst of the climate crisis.

“For as long as we continue to emit greenhouse gases,” Professor Taalas said, “temperatures will continue to rise.”