The world is at a tipping point, with annual greenhouse gas emissions hitting unprecedented levels, and the clock is ticking to prevent catastrophic temperature rises.
A new report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), released Thursday, October 24, underscores the dire need for immediate global action to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
The UN Emissions Gap Report 2024 highlights the alarming reality that current efforts are not enough. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned: “Climate crunch time is here.” She emphasized that global mobilization on an unprecedented scale is essential, beginning now, to meet future climate pledges.
If countries fail to act, the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rises to 1.5°C will become unattainable. “The 1.5°C goal will soon be dead,” Andersen said, “and well below two degrees Celsius will take its place in the intensive care unit.”
Climate Goals in Jeopardy
The report was launched at the COP16 biodiversity conference in Cali, Colombia, tracking the gap between current country commitments and where emissions should be to meet the Paris Agreement’s objectives.
According to the findings, the 1.5°C target could vanish in just a few years if nations do not collectively reduce annual emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035. The next opportunity for countries to submit their revised climate pledges will be in 2025, ahead of the COP30 climate talks in Brazil.
These climate commitments, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), outline steps each nation will take to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts, such as droughts, floods, and extreme weather events. But time is running out, and current pledges are far from sufficient.
A Global Crisis Looms
Without drastic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, the planet is on course for a devastating 3.1°C rise in global temperatures. This would trigger more extreme weather patterns, worsening climate disasters and disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of the urgency, stating that the emissions gap is not an abstract problem. There is a clear link between rising emissions and the increasingly frequent climate disasters we are already witnessing.
“We are teetering on a planetary tightrope. Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most.”
António Guterres
Renewable Energy Offers a Lifeline
The upcoming COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, is expected to serve as a critical moment for countries to discuss their ambitious national plans. Guterres urged governments, particularly the G20 nations responsible for 80% of global emissions, to step up. “Governments have agreed to align these plans with 1.5 degrees,” he said. “They must drive down emissions across all sectors of the economy.”
Despite the negative outlook, the report offers some hope. Guterres emphasized that “affordable, existing technologies can achieve the emissions reductions we need.” The report identifies clean energy solutions, such as solar and wind power, as key to achieving the necessary reductions.
The potential for emissions reductions is significant. By 2030, emissions could be cut by up to 31 gigatons of CO₂ — about 52% of the 2023 levels — if countries ramp up their use of renewable energy. By 2035, this reduction could rise to 41 gigatons.
Solar and wind energy alone could account for a combined 27% reduction by 2030 and 38% by 2035, while forest conservation efforts could provide around 20% of the needed cuts in both years.
The UNEP report also points to other critical strategies, including improving energy efficiency, electrifying transport and industry, and transitioning away from fossil fuels in buildings.
However, achieving even a fraction of this potential will require an unparalleled level of international cooperation. Governments must focus on maximizing the benefits of these initiatives for both the environment and society while minimizing trade-offs.
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