China is expected to dominate Asia’s refinery crude distillation unit (CDU) capacity additions, contributing about half of Asia’s total CDU capacity additions between 2022 and 2026, according to GlobalData.
Out of a total CDU capacity additions of 3.4 million barrels per day (mmbd) to be established by China, 2.8 mmbd would be from new build projects and the rest from expansion projects.
Accordingly, 8 new build CDU refineries are likely to start operations by 2026, of which five are planned with identified development plans and the remaining three are early-stage announced refineries. Yulong and Jieyang are the largest new build refineries, each with a refining capacity of 400 thousand barrels per day (mbd).
Bhargavi Gandham, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, said: “Strong economic growth and rising demand for petrochemicals and petroleum products are the primary drivers for refinery capacity additions in China.”
GlobalData expects India to be the second-highest contributor to Asia’s refinery CDU capacity additions with a total of 1.6 mmbd by 2026. The Barmer and Nagapattinam II refineries account for the entire new build capacity additions in the country, each with a capacity of 180 mbd.
For India, large investments by state-owned refining companies, and the upgrade of refining technologies are expected to boost refinery capacity and reduce costs in India, Bhargavi said.
Indonesia is expected to add third largest refinery CDU capacity additions in Asia with 526 mbd by 2026. The Java Island refinery is the largest refinery in the country expected to start operations by 2026. It has a capacity of 100 mbd and is expected to start operations in 2025.
More than 60 per cent of Asia’s capex is expected to be spent by India, China, and Indonesia. The key capex spending companies in Asia’s refining industry are Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. followed by PT Pertamina (Persero), and China Petrochemical Corp.
State of Global Refinery Capacity
Globally, refinery CDU capacity is at 105.6 million barrels per day (mmbd) in 2022. The market is projected to witness a growth of over 10 per cent from 2022 to 2026.
Asia’s CDU capacity is the highest among all regions globally, followed by North America and Europe. Among the countries in the world, China, India, and Nigeria would be the top three countries globally for CDU capacity additions during the 2022 to 2026 outlook period.
In Africa, the new build and expansion capex amount is expected to be spent by countries during the 2022 to 2026 outlook period. About 22 per cent of the region’s capex is expected to be spent by Nigeria alone, followed by South Africa.
The key capex spending companies in the African refining industry on new build and expansion projects are Sonangol EP, Mestosync Energy, and Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company.
In the Middle East, the key countries with new build and expansion projects include Iraq and Iran. Both countries are expected to spend more than 63 per cent of the region’s total capex. South Refineries leads the Middle East’s key companies list followed by Petro Tejarat Shahin Co. and North Refineries Company.
Among the major projects announced in the global refining industry are Otuasega, a hydroskimming-type refinery proposed in Nigeria; the topping-type Kogo refinery proposed to come online in Equatorial Guinea in 2024; the Um-Dabakir refinery proposed to come online in Sudan; Uturogu refinery in Nigeria to start operations in 2023; and the Ningo refinery in Ghana proposed to start operations in 2026.