A privately funded U.S action tank, Surgo Foundation, has disclosed findings of its research which posits that Africa’s low coronavirus deaths as compared to the rest of the world is due to its relatively high young population.
According to the research, this is the best explanation that can be given to the low fatality rate of the novel coronavirus on the continent. The research after studying the infection fatality rate (IFR) based on age and gender distribution revealed that most parts of Africa had a relatively low IFR.
The findings show that Africa’s IFR is between 0.10 per cent and 0.15 per cent as compared to 0.66 per cent in the United States of America which has an older population.
Sub-Saharan Africa came top among the regions on the continent as its median age is around 18 excluding South Africa and countries in North who have quite a higher median age hence, making them more vulnerable. The findings however find this factor somewhat offset as against other positive factors such as improved healthcare facilities.
Meanwhile, some varying factors such as socio-economic and health impacts of the pandemic depict different scenarios in many countries across the continent. Southern Africa shows more vulnerability due to its epidemiology as compared to West Africa. Notwithstanding, fragility factors can be found in both rich and poor countries.
Wealthier countries such as South Africa and cities such as Lagos, Nairobi or Cape Town are likely to need hospitalization if the disease spreads as they have quite a vulnerable older and denser population. However, they have better healthcare facilities, transportation and housing system which may allow for social distancing and feasible lockdown in case of a spike.
On the other hand, lower income countries such as Ethiopia or regions like Nigeria’s northern regions of Zamfara and Yobe have poor health facilities, transportation and housing systems. In the case of practicing social distance, these regions on the continent have overcrowded settlements and high public transport patronage hence difficult to achieve. In the case of a lockdown, financial constraints will deter them from staying at home since their survival is mostly based on daily wages.
Africa has seen lower number of deaths compared to other continents on a “per million” basis following the advent of the novel coronavirus. There has been a spike in recent weeks as numbers have risen steadily crossing the 500,000-mark.
Research shows that it took about 100 days for cases to reach 100,000, about 20 days to reach 200,000 and only a week to reach 500,000 cases.
According to the Africa Centres for Disease Control, there were 524,000 cases, 12,229 deaths and 225,000 recoveries as of July 8, 2020.
An analysis by Reuters also showed that as of July 7, 2020, Africa had conducted over 4,200 tests per one million compared to averages of 7,650 in Asia and 74,255 in Europe. With nearly two million tests conducted, South Africa has the most cases with over 225,000 cases and 3,600 deaths. In West Africa, Ghana has had more than 300,000 tests, 23,000 cases and 129 deaths.
The research studying Africa’s COVID-19 Community Vulnerability Index (CCVI) showed Ethiopia as the most vulnerable country on the continent. Though Ethiopia has lower deaths per capita compared to huge populations in Nigeria, South Africa or Kenya, its poverty was adjudged based on factors such as household crowding, transportation difficulties, poor health system, low socioeconomic status, large internally displaced populations and food insecurity.
