The heave of hope inspired by the incredible breakthrough in Libya’s peace process is looking gloomy as negotiations to enable viable elections on December 24, 2021 bog down.

Since the government of National Unity’s swearing-in on 15 March, 2021, progress has stalled and a stalemate has set in, says Silvia Colombo, Libyan expert at the Istituto Affari Internazionali.

Meanwhile, negotiations have deadlocked mostly over the nature and sequencing – and possibly the delay of the December 24 elections, and the crucial question of who should be the military’s commander in chief. However, the July 1 deadline has passed without the necessary constitutional amendments and electoral law to be adopted by Parliament that would allow for polls to be organised.

Another stumbling block is the persistence of foreign forces in the country, despite the November 2020 agreement requesting them to leave the country. These include Syrian mercenaries on both sides of the conflict. Turkish military elements that backed the previous Tripoli government are also still present, as is the Russian private military company Wagner – a proxy for Moscow that backed Haftar and the Tobruk government.

As a product of the stalemate and an ominous warning of what could ensue if negotiations aren’t revived quickly, the sinister figure of General Khalifa Haftar has returned to the political stage. Haftar is the military commander of the Libyan National Army – the armed force of the Tobruk government.

However, analysts now think that Libyans and the international community became too optimistic and complacent after significant milestones were reached. These include: the October 2020 ceasefire, a transitional political framework agreement, and the March handover of power from the western government in Tripoli and the rival eastern government in Tobruk to one of national unity.

In hindsight, these were astonishing gains for a country engulfed in civil war since Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown 10 years ago this month of August.

Meanwhile, the International Crisis Group noted that the establishment of a unified government, which enjoys the backing of Libya’s competing political groupings, their affiliated military coalitions and their foreign backers, is a historic achievement. It sets the stage for reunification of political and military institutions that have been divided and recurrently battling since 2014.

“Though the presence of foreign troops is complicating the transition, particularly efforts to unify the country’s many military forces, it isn’t a deal breaker,” says Tim Eaton, Libya specialist at Chatham House. He and Colombo agree that the main problem remains the stalled arrangements for elections.

However, the roadmap is silent on several issues. One is whether the 24th December poll should be a referendum on a draft constitution completed by an elected committee in 2017, with elections later. Alternatively, the polls could be for a new Parliament only, which would indirectly elect a president. Or voters could choose both a Parliament and a President.

The counter argument is that Libyans are impatient for democracy and should be allowed to choose a new government as soon as possible. This government could then approve a new constitution and address institution building and reunification.

Whatever the merits of these arguments, many suspect Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba’s government is delaying elections merely so it can remain in office after 24th December. Dabaiba was earlier accused of buying votes from the members of the Libya Political Dialogue Forum, which chose the transitional government.