Fitch Ratings, a global rating agency, has expressed concerns over Ghana’s rising debt servicing costs, highlighting the possibility of the country seeking an assistance from the IMF even though the government has so far chosen not to pursue a regular IMF program.
According to Fitch, the government may decide to seek help from the Breton Woods Institution if liquidity strains mount. Currently, the IMF classifies Ghana as being at high risk of debt distress, “but we do not believe that an IMF programme would entail a debt restructuring”.
This warning followed a recent Bloomberg survey that highlighted similar concerns, which further exposed the precarious state of the country’s debt situation.
The rating agency is of the firm believe that an IMF support would bolster investor confidence, and could help Ghana regain access to international debt markets.
“We believe that macroeconomic stresses and pressures on liquidity would probably intensify if Ghana remains unable to issue and does not seek timely support from the IMF. Around 20% of local-currency sovereign debt is held by non-residents, and under such a scenario these investors could lose confidence and sell down their holdings.
“This could put downward pressure on the currency and force up the government’s borrowing costs. In June, we stated that a prolonged lack of market access leading to a sustained, sharp depreciation of the cedi or a decline in international reserves could be a driver of negative rating action”.
Fitch
Increasing risks of meeting medium-term financing needs
Fitch Ratings, in its recent report, emphasized that Ghana’s effective loss of access to international markets increases risks to its ability to meet medium-term financing needs.
According to Fitch, Ghana has sufficient liquidity to cover near-term debt servicing without market financing. Fitch however, indicated that there is a danger that non-resident investors in the local bond market could sell their holdings, particularly if confidence in fiscal consolidation weakens, placing significant downward pressure on its reserves.
Ghana issued USD3 billion in Eurobonds in March 2021, and received USD1 billion in IMF Special Drawing Rights. The government had indicated plans to issue a further USD1 billion on international markets this year, but abandoned these plans in October, noting current market conditions.
The widening of Ghana’s spreads reflect growing international investor risk aversion, partly because markets now expect US monetary tightening to come sooner than previously anticipated, making it harder for vulnerable sovereigns to attract external financing, Fitch stated.
Gradual improvement in government financing
Fitch indicated that concerns about the government’s commitment to fiscal tightening, ahead of the release of the 2022 budget in November, may also have contributed to rising yields. Fitch already projects a more gradual improvement in the public finances than the 2021 budget’s medium-term framework, which will see the deficit falling to 5.5% of GDP by 2023.
“We forecast the deficit, on a cash basis, to narrow to 7.7% of GDP in 2023 from 14% in 2020, with the general government debt/GDP ratio continuing to rise through 2022-2023, before plateauing in subsequent years below 90%”.
Fitch
Fitch cautioned that the medium-term outlook for the public finances remains challenging, and problems have been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Revenue is structurally low and interest costs very high – we project general government interest expense at almost 47% of revenue in 2022, well above the median for ‘B’ rated sovereigns of 11%”.
Fitch
Heighten risks of sovereign rating downgrade
The government’s current fiscal consolidation strategy offers a path to debt sustainability, but the gradual pace of deficit reduction leaves it vulnerable to slippage risk, Fitch disclosed. This, Fitch said, “was reflected by our revision of the Outlook on the sovereign rating to Negative, from Stable, when we affirmed the rating at ‘B’ in June 2021”.
The Global rating agency also warned that an insufficient pace of consolidation, failing to rebuild investor confidence, could result in a downgrade of the sovereign rating.
“We estimate Ghana’s external debt-servicing costs will fall to USD2.2 billion in 2022, from USD3.2 billion in 2021, but forecast that a widening current-account deficit, combined with private debt payments, will mean a gross external financing requirement of USD7.3 billion”.
Fitch
Consequently, Fitch cautioned that external liquidity could become a source of increased credit stress if international capital markets remain too expensive for Ghana to issue in 2022.
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