For the fifth month in a row, inflation rate skyrocketed to another peak of 13% in January 2022 – the highest pace in nearly two years, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Tuesday, February 1, 2022.
The jump in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 13% in January over the same month a year ago, beats the government’s expectations. Experts are of the view that the fresh inflation reading may also impact the interest rates by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) which is now following the headline inflation number to determine the policy rate instead of core inflation.
Analysts had already anticipated inflation to be in double digits and the current CPI was in line with their expected targets. Expectations were that inflation will remain high year-on-year because of base inflation being low last year. Pakistan’s inflation rate depends on three major factors; electricity prices, rupee-dollar parity and international commodity prices.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation remained subdued, slightly rising by 0.4% owing to an increase in food inflation, the PBS disclosed.
The national data-collecting agency’s latest inflation figures came after the Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting last week in which the committee kept the policy rate unchanged at 9.75%.
Tawfiq, an analyst, predicted that in the next monetary policy meeting, scheduled to be held on March 8, 2022, the central bank will maintain the policy rate and advised it should be kept unchanged till the close of the ongoing fiscal year, 2021-22.
Wholesale Price Index
The Wholesale Price Index (WPI), which captures prices in the wholesale market, also rose sharply by 24% in January 2022 compared to 6.4% in the same month a year ago.
The PBS reported that the overall inflation rate recorded an increase in both the urban and rural areas. The inflation rate in urban areas edged to 13% in January and rural areas surged to 12.9% over the same month last year. In January last year, the overall inflation rate in urban areas was 5% compared to 6.6% in the rural areas.
The food inflation rate in villages and cities surged to 13.3% and 11.8% on a yearly basis. In January 2021, food inflation for villages and cities were 7.2% and 7.3% respectively.
The non-food inflation rate was 12.8% in urban areas and 13.9% in rural areas in the first month of this year compared to 3.7% and 6.1% respectively, in the corresponding month of last year.
Core inflation
Core inflation — calculated by excluding food and energy items — rose by 8.2% in urban areas and by 9% in rural areas during the month under review, reported the national data collecting agency.
The food group saw a price increase of 12.82% in January from the same month a year ago. Within the food group, prices of non-perishable food items surged by 13.77% on an annualised basis meanwhile the prices of the perishable goods were effectively reduced by 6.43% year-on-year.
The inflation rate for the housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel group — having one-fourth weight in the basket — rose by 15.53% (year-on-year) last month.
Average prices for the clothing and footwear group also increased by 11.18% in January this year whilst prices related to transportation surged by 23.05% year-on-year.
On a month-on-month basis, the price of pulse masoor rose by 6.13%, followed by an increase of 4.79% in gram whole, 4.11% increase in fruits, nearly 3% in wheat, according to the PBS. The prices of meat and rice recorded an increase of 1.78% and 1.28% respectively in January 2022.
The average inflation rate for the first seven months of the current fiscal (July – January) year came in at 10.26%, according to the PBS.
The central bank earlier warned that inflation will likely remain high in the near term due to base effects and energy prices.
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