Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, revealed that the April national polls showed diverse views on the effectiveness and influence of the Free Senior High School (SHS) policy on the general public.
According to Mussa Dankwah, the poll results indicate that nearly seven in ten voters (68%) have directly benefited from the Free SHS policy, whereas three in ten (32%) have not benefited from it.
Mussa Dankwah further revealed that the poll showed a significant majority (62%) of voters experiencing financial relief thanks to the Free SHS policy, while nearly a third (30%) reported no financial relief, and a small proportion (8%) remained uncertain about its impact on their finances.
“The poll shows that Eastern, Northern, and Western North are the regions with the highest proportion of voters say they have benefited directed from the policy compared to who have not benefited (row percentage)”.
“Ironically, the regions with the highest proportion of voters who say they have not benefited directly from the policy are the Ashanti region (45%), Volta region (49%), and North East and Western region are tied on 40% not benefited from the policy”.
Mussa Dankwah
According to Mussa Dankwah, regionally, the poll revealed that an overwhelming majority of voters in Ahafo and Oti (84%) and sizable majorities in Western North (74%) and the Eastern Region (74%) reported experiencing financial relief due to the Free SHS policy.
Dankwah pointed out that among those who haven’t experienced financial relief from the Free SHS policy, the highest proportions were found in Greater Accra (52%), followed by the Volta region (44%), and then the Western region (41%).
According to Mussa Dankwah, a significant proportion (43%) of voters who have benefited from the Free SHS policy intend to vote for John Dramani Mahama, while a smaller but notable proportion (36%) plan to vote for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.
He also observed that, in contrast, among voters who haven’t benefited from the Free SHS policy, a significantly higher proportion (56%) intend to vote for John Dramani Mahama, compared to a much lower proportion (18%) who plan to vote for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.
Free SHS Beneficiaries Favor Bawumia Over Mahama
According to Mussa Dankwah, a notable trend emerged among voters who have benefited from the Free SHS policy and reported experiencing financial relief.
He indicated a majority (53%) of this group intends to vote for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, while a significantly lower proportion (29%) plans to vote for John Dramani Mahama.
“For those who said they have benefited but have not brought financial relief to them and their household, 69% will vote for JDM while 11% will vote for DMB. For those who are unsure whether the policy has brought financial relief, 53% intend to vote for JDM while 13% will vote for DMB”.
Mussa Dankwah
However, Mussa Dankwah indicated that the April 2024 poll has not yet revealed how the beneficiaries of the Free SHS policy, broken down by employment status, intend to cast their votes, leaving this aspect still uncertain.
Meanwhile, Mussa Dankwah highlighted that, based on the 2020 election results, the Central region and swing seats are crucial areas that need to be won over in order to flip some parliamentary seats.
Dankwah observed that, interestingly, the safest seats in parliament are currently held by two prominent leaders, the Majority Leader, Hon. Alexander Kwamena Afenyo-Markin, and the Minority Leader, Cassiel Ato Forson, whose constituencies are considered the most secure.
Mussa Dankwah pointed out that, notably, 10 of the 16 seats that require a swing of 4% or less to change hands are currently held by the National Democratic Congress (NDC), while the remaining 6 are held by the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
“Our MRP [Multilevel regression with post stratification] model will attempt to project winners using national, regional, and constituency polling data we have collected since January 2022”.
Mussa Dankwah
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