The Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Musa Danquah has predicted a potential shift in the Dome Kwabenya Constituency from the ruling New Patriotic Party to the opposition National Democratic Congress.
Referencing the July poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics which sampled three of the ten electoral areas within the constituency, Mr Danquah contended that the traditionally New Patriotic Party (NPP)-stronghold may be in danger of slipping away in the upcoming December elections.
“In the first of such publication on Dome Kwabenya from the July 2024 national poll based on the sample deployed in three of the ten electoral areas of the constituency points to a potential problem for the NPP with Adwoa Sarfo not on the ballot”.
Musa Danquah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
Presidential Race Overview
According to Mr Danquah, in the presidential race, the poll indicates that former President John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) leads with 38%, followed by Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP with 30%.
He also indicated that the Movement for Change Founder and leader, Alan Kyerematen, running as an independent candidate, garnered 6%, while Nana Kwame Bediako of the New Force, also an independent candidate, had 7%.
“Notably, 8% of respondents remain undecided, 9% have decided not to vote, and 2% declined to disclose their voting intentions”, Mr Danquah added.
The pollster with vast experience across almost three continents, including Africa, Europe and North America further revealed that Dr Bawumia maintains a 19-point lead over former President Mahama in Taifa South, one of the electoral areas within the constituency, yet former President Mahama leads Dr Bawumia by 18 points in Atomic and 29 points in Kwabenya.
This disparity in voter preference across different areas within Dome Kwabenya Constituency, Mr Danquah asserted could spell trouble for the NPP, as it highlights significant regional divides in support.
Parliamentary Election Insights
Moreover, Musa Danquah disclosed that the parliamentary race paints an even grimmer picture for the NPP.
According to him, the poll revealed that Elikplim Akrugu of the NDC leads Mike Oquaye Jnr. of the NPP by a narrow margin, securing 38% of the vote against Oquaye’s 35%.
Additionally, he noted that 6% of voters indicated support for other candidates, while 15% are undecided, and 6% have chosen not to vote.
One of the most striking findings of the poll according to Mr Danquah is the high percentage of undecided voters in key areas.
“21% of voters in Taifa South, the spiritual home of the Kristo Asafo and World Bank of NPP are undecided and 6% will not vote. In Atomic, it is 13% undecided and 6% will not vote and finally, in Kwabenya, 9% are undecided and 7% will not vote”.
Musa Danquah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
Implications for Mike Oquaye Jnr. and the NPP
Additionally, Mr Danquah argued that an analysis of the data suggests a potential “skirt and blouse” voting pattern—a situation where voters choose candidates from different parties for the presidential and parliamentary elections—in the NPP strongholds within Dome Kwabenya Constituency.
He indicated that the NDC’s parliamentary candidate, Elikplim Akrugu’s overperformance compared to former President Mahama in Taifa South by 4 points and in Atomic by 2 points, coupled with his underperformance by 8% in Kwabenya, underscores the possibility of a divided vote against Mike Oquaye Jnr, the NPP’s parliamentary candidate.
This phenomenon according to Mr Danquah could be particularly problematic for NPP’s Mike Oquaye Jr., who faces the daunting task of consolidating support in a constituency that is grappling with shifting allegiances.
He emphasized that despite the current MP for the Dome Kwabenya Constituency, Honorable Adwoa Safo not being on the ballot, her influence seems to loom large, much like other races where ousted female candidates have left a lasting impact.
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