Whiles the 2024 general elections appears to be a very competitive election, the results of recent polls spell danger for the New Patriotic Party and its flagbearer, Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.
Musa Danquah, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, sharing compelling insights from the firm’s July 2024 poll, revealed significant shifts in voter preferences that could have profound implications for the upcoming elections.
The data presented by Mr Danquah emphasizes a pivotal trend: the shifts among those who previously voted in the 2020 elections.
According to the poll, a substantial portion of voters who supported President Akufo-Addo in 2020 are reconsidering their choices.
“Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential elections? We have tracked this question for 32 months so can see average swing for the entire period of polling. What we published yesterday showing how many of Nana Addo’s 2020 votes have gone to JM and how many of JM’s have gone to Bawumia was just from the July 2024 poll.
“We will release the average swing for the entire polling season and of 2024 soon!! This is where the election is being won or loss and not among first-time voters. Using the likely committed voters’ model, overall, according to the July 2024 poll, 21.8% of voters who voted for Nana Addo in 2020 will now vote for John Mahama, 67% will vote for Dr Bawumia, 6.2% will vote for Alan and 4.4% will vote for Nana Bediako”.
Musa Danquah, Executive Director Global InfoAnalytics
The data indicates that nearly one-third (33%) of voters who previously supported President Akufo-Addo in 2020 are not committed to the NPP in 2024.
The loss of these votes presents a significant challenge for the ruling party as it seeks to maintain its hold on power.
On the other hand, the loyalty of the National Democratic Congress flagbearer, former President John Dramani Mahama’s 2020 supporters appears relatively strong, with 93.4% indicating they would vote for him again.
However, he is not immune to voter defection with approximately 6.6% of his previous voters having shifted their allegiance, with 4.6% now planning to vote for Dr Bawumia, and smaller percentages supporting other candidates.
“From the poll, 5.8% of NPP supporters who voted for Nana Addo in 2020 now intend to vote for John Mahama. 89.8% will vote for DMB, 2.6% for Alan Kyeremanten, 1.5% for Nana Kwame Bediako.
“For those who are NDC but voted for Nana Addo in 2020, 83.5% of them will return to vote for Mahama, 9.3% will still not retain and they will vote for Bawumia. 2.8% will however vote for Alan and 3.1% will vote for Bediako”.
Musa Danquah, Executive Director Global InfoAnalytics
The Impact of Floating and Undeclared Voters
Perhaps the most intriguing group highlighted in the poll is the floating voters who supported President Akufo-Addo in 2020.
Of these, 47.3% are now inclined to vote for the NDC flagbearer former President Mahama, while 29.3% intend to vote for Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.
The remaining are split between Alan Kyerematen of the Movement for Change and Nana Kwame Bediako of the New Force.
This group of floating voters, who have no strong party allegiance, is traditionally seen as a key battleground in Ghanaian elections.
Additionally, the data on voters who did not disclose their party affiliation but voted for President Akufo-Addo shows a significant swing.
While 33.1% would now vote for former President Mahama, 44.2% are still with Dr Bawumia, indicating that the NPP may have some base among this non-disclosing group, but not without contest.
Mr Danquah’s analysis brings to light a broader context that extends beyond the numbers. The shifting loyalties among Ghana’s electorate reflect deeper undercurrents of dissatisfaction, hope for change, and realignment based on current political realities.
It shows that Ghana’s voters are becoming increasingly discerning and are willing to shift their allegiances based on the performance and promises of political parties.
The data also indicate that voter loyalty is fluid, and the 2024 elections could be determined by the sway of previously committed voters, requiring the need for political actors to understand these shifts, as they are not merely anecdotal but reflective of broader political sentiments.
For the NPP and its flagbearer Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, the defection of nearly a third of President Akufo-Addo’s 2020 voters represents a potential loss that could be detrimental to the party’s mantra of breaking the “8”.
For the NDC and former President Mahama, while the retention of 93.4% of his 2020 supporters is promising, the loss of even a small percentage of votes to Dr Bawumia and others could affect the overall outcome.
As we move closer to the December 2024 elections, it is evident as earlier intimated by Mr Danquah that the race will not solely be decided by first-time voters but by those who have previously cast their ballots and are now reconsidering their choices.
Both the NPP and the NDC will need to address the concerns of these voters, offering compelling reasons for them to either stay or switch allegiances.
This election, more than any in recent memory, will be won or lost based on the ability to connect with a dynamic and increasingly critical electorate.
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