Rachel Reeves’ upcoming Budget has become a pivotal test for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government, potentially shaping the next decade for the nation — or marking the beginning of the party’s downfall.
With just over 100 days in power, the Prime Minister’s approval ratings have plummeted to new lows, and the upcoming financial statement on October 30 is unlikely to change the public’s sentiment. The package will include £40 billion worth of tax hikes and spending cuts.
While much of the backlash has focused on Ms. Reeves, who has spearheaded the financial reforms, Sir Keir will undoubtedly face scrutiny as the one ultimately responsible for his government’s decisions. The tension in his Cabinet has not helped matters, as ministers publicly clash over the severity of the impending cuts.
Three of Sir Keir’s most senior ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, have written letters to the PM expressing concerns about the “huge” reductions planned for their departments.
They are particularly alarmed, given that their portfolios — justice, transport, and housing — do not have the same spending protections as health, defense, or education. These cuts, they argue, could severely limit their ability to deliver on key government promises.
Cabinet Ministers Fear for Their Departments
Along with Rayner, Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Transport Secretary Louise Haigh have voiced their discomfort, suggesting that such significant reductions would be detrimental to their long-term goals. One minister described the cuts as “self-defeating,” fearing they would undermine Labour’s growth agenda.
The Budget’s expected impact is also raising alarms beyond the top ranks. Former Home Office adviser Danny Shaw warned that cuts of up to 20% in departments like the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) would “destroy the criminal justice system in many ways.” Although sources within the MoJ have downplayed these fears, stating the cuts would not reach 20%, the uncertainty is unsettling.
Ms. Rayner’s Ministry of Housing, Communities, and Local Government will also face deep cuts, even as it works toward Labour’s ambitious plan to build 1.5 million homes before the next general election.
Meanwhile, Ms. Haigh’s Department for Transport oversees the renationalization of the railways, another costly and radical overhaul at risk from the reductions.
Labour’s Internal Disunity on Display
The leaks of these internal complaints further expose the discord within Starmer’s Cabinet, just as the party faces one of its biggest tests since coming into power. Allies of the Prime Minister have downplayed the public dissent, arguing it’s not unusual for ministers to push for more funding from the Treasury ahead of a Budget. Yet, the fact that these complaints have been made public indicates deeper issues within the party’s leadership.
The stakes are high for ministers like Rayner, Mahmood, and Haigh. Cuts to their departments could spell disaster for Labour’s broader reform agenda, with stretched departments struggling to deliver on promises central to the party’s platform.
The proposed cuts should not come as a shock to Labour’s leadership. Since taking office, the government has repeatedly warned of the dire state of public finances. Despite this, the deepening rift within the Cabinet suggests that not all ministers were prepared for the scale of the Budget’s austerity measures.
As the government approaches its first major Budget, questions about Starmer’s ability to maintain unity within his top team are growing. While there is no outright rebellion, it’s clear that more work needs to be done to convince everyone of the merits of Reeves’ financial plan.
If the Prime Minister cannot bridge the growing divides in his Cabinet, this Budget could be the moment that defines his leadership in one way or another.
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