Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has indicated that the Western Region could become a significant challenge for the ruling party in the December 2024 elections, potentially emerging as a second “Waterloo” alongside Greater Accra.
According to recent polling data, the ruling party may face strong opposition and a possible loss of support in these regions, which could impact their overall performance in the national elections.
This trend, if it continues, could shape the political landscape, signaling a shift in voter sentiment in key areas.
“Data from the Electoral Commission suggests that Nana Addo won 66% of the total votes cast in Effia, Kwesimintsim, Essikado-Ketan, Takoradi and Secondi constituencies. John Mahama received a paltry 32% share of the votes.
“Nearly 4 years on, the tables appear to have turned as a new poll from the constituencies shows John Mahama leading in the NPP heartland of the Western region by nearly 52%”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah further stated that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia currently has the support of roughly 37% of voters, while Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako stand at approximately 6% and 4%, respectively.
He highlighted a notable shift in voter sentiment, as former President John Mahama has gained 20 percentage points compared to his performance in the 2020 elections.
In contrast, Bawumia’s support is down by 29 percentage points from where President Nana Addo stood in 2020, suggesting a significant shift in favorability within the ruling party’s traditional voter base.
Dankwah cautioned that the country is in unprecedented political terrain leading into the 2024 elections, emphasizing that the political climate is far from “normal.”
He suggested that these shifts indicate a volatile electoral environment, with traditional voting patterns potentially upended and voter preferences showing new alignments and uncertainties that could significantly influence the election’s outcome. “Forget any historical trend data you have under your pillow, it will not trend”.
Polls Suggest Potential Landslide Outcome for 2024 Elections
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah further highlighted that if the current polling trends hold true in December, Ghana may be on the verge of a landslide outcome in the 2024 elections.
He expressed strong confidence in the accuracy of Global InfoAnalytics’ data, stating, “We may be the only ones saying this, but we believe firmly in our findings.”
However, Dankwah also acknowledged that others are entitled to disagree, especially if their own data presents a different perspective.
He emphasized that differing analyses are part of the democratic process, inviting open discussion and debate on the potential outcomes of the upcoming elections.
“With nearly 27 days before the December poll and recent unveiling on statute of the president in Effia Nkwanta. 63% of voters in the enclave say they disapprove the job performance of the president. However, in Effia, it is 80%, Kwesimintsim, 83%, Takoradi, 63%, Essikado-Ketan, 58% and Sekondi, 32%.
“Huge chunk of voters in Essikado-Ketan and Sekondi, 16% and 17% respectively say they are undecided. These voters could make live very confutable or uncomfortable for the candidates depending where they break to on the Election Day”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah further highlighted a concerning trend of voter apathy in the Takoradi area, noting significant differences between communities.
The pollster indicated that in Kwesimintsim, a striking 42% of eligible voters indicated they would not participate in the 2024 elections, marking it as the area with the highest level of apathy.
In contrast, Takoradi recorded the lowest level of voter apathy in the region, with only 8% of voters expressing an intention to abstain according to Dankwah.
This variation, he suggested, could reflect differing levels of political engagement and satisfaction within these communities, which may ultimately impact overall voter turnout and influence the election results in the Western Region.
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