Global InfoAnalytics has forecasted a win for John Dramani Mahama, the leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), in the 2024 presidential election, projecting that he will secure 52.2% of the vote.
According to the polling house, the incumbent Vice President, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, who is the candidate for the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), is expected to garner 41.4%.
The poll indicated that other candidates, including Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten, are predicted to receive 2.5%, while Nana Kwame Bediako is projected to earn 3.0%.
The remaining 0.9% is expected to be shared among other contenders from smaller parties across the political spectrum.
“For the Parliamentary election, NDC currently leads and is likely to win circa 150 seats, the NPP is likely to win 99 seats, 1 seat is likely to be won by an independent candidate and 29 seats are in a tossup state (too close to call)”.
Global InfoAnalytics
According to the final pre-election poll by Global InfoAnalytics, John Dramani Mahama, the leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), is expected to secure significant victories in several regions.
These include Greater Accra, Central, Western, Volta, Western North, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper West, Upper East, and Oti regions.
This wide-ranging support across various regions, the polling house indicated, emphasizes Mahama’s deep-rooted influence and strong presence throughout the country, showcasing his appeal to a diverse voter base.
The results suggested a competitive race, with Mahama making notable inroads in key areas crucial to the outcome of the election.
Global InfoAnalytics also reported that the comprehensive list of constituencies expected to support each candidate will be made available once the polls close on December 7, 2024.
Mahama Wins, Bawumia Depends on Regional Support
Furthermore, the poll presents two scenarios for the outcome of the election. In the worst-case model for the NDC, former President John Dramani Mahama is still projected to secure a narrow victory with 50.4% of the vote.
In this scenario, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, representing the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), would lose with 43.0%, leaving a margin of 7.4%.
According to Global InfoAnalytics, in the best-case scenario for the NDC, Mahama’s victory margin is projected to widen significantly.
The NDC is forecasted to win with 54.1% of the vote, while Bawumia would secure only 39.8%, creating a larger margin of 14.3%.
This variation highlights the potential for both candidates to experience differing levels of success based on voter turnout and regional support.
“Dr Mahamudu Bawumia is predicted to win the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, Bono, and North East regions. The presidential prediction has a margin of error of ±1.8%”.
Global InfoAnalytics
According to the poll, the overall voter turnout is expected to average 77.6%, though this figure may vary across different regions.
Regional disparities in voter participation are anticipated, reflecting the diverse political dynamics and levels of engagement in various parts of the country.
This turnout estimate is crucial in determining the final outcome, as higher or lower participation in key regions could influence the results in favor of one candidate or another.
In line with the findings of Global InfoAnalytics, the Oxford Economic Research Briefing also predicted a victory for John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
The report highlighted that, given the policy differences between the NPP and the NDC, a win for Mahama would likely lead to slightly improved economic performance during the next presidential term.
However, the macroeconomic forecasts presented in the briefing suggest that these improvements would be marginal, with only subtle differences in economic outcomes between the two major parties.
This indicates that while a change in leadership may influence policy direction, the broader economic trends could remain relatively stable.
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