Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has urged the public to disregard NPP and its communicators’ attempt to discredit his poll findings, noting that The NPP’s desperation is glaring for all to see.
Dankwah clarified that while he is responsible for his posts on this platform and Poll House’s handles, he is not accountable for how media outlets report on them.
He also expressed no surprise that NPP sympathizers and officials are widely circulating an October Graphic report, attributed to him, suggesting that a miracle is needed for Trump to win.
“In October 2023, after we released our polls on the NPP presidential primaries, some media houses claim we predicted a runoff because they did not understand the use of the All Voters Model (AVL) and Likely Voters Model (LV). We came out to correct that. What we posted regarding our prediction was never a runoff and we all know who was right.
“Since then, our detractors have invested time, energy, and resources to ensure that Ghanaians do not trust our polls for propaganda reasons but we are not concerned. I know their aim is to suggest that we are NOT credible because Kamala lost and our polls will not see the light of day”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah further questioned why there is such excitement from the NPP over Kamala Harris’ loss, given that the reasons for her defeat closely mirror the situation in Ghana just a month before the December 7th election.
He explained that the poll indicated the primary concern for U.S. voters was the economy and cost of living crisis, issues that were tied to Harris, not Trump.
According to him, this mirrors what Ghanaians are expressing in polls from organizations like NCEE, Afrobarometer, and Global InfoAnalytics.
As such, the pollster wondered why the NPP should be optimistic heading into the December election when Ghanaians are stating that their economic conditions will be the key factor in their vote.
Dankwah suggested that, like Harris’ campaign, the NPP’s campaign shift is disconnected from the needs of Ghanaians.
Accordingly, he argued that any objective assessment would conclude that the candidate who addresses the top three concerns of voters—economy, jobs, and education—will emerge as the winner in Ghana’s election.
“While I am not bothered that you have found a quote that suggests I am not credible because that is what you have invested in for all this while, I am very confident that our polls will be very close to what will happen in the December elections”.
Mussa Dankwah
Ghana’s Polls Indicate Clear Lead, Unlike Narrow U.S. Election Margin
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah pointed out that while the U.S. election polls narrowed in the final two weeks to a near tie, with margins of error ranging from ±1% to 3%, Ghana’s polls have shown a margin of error between ±1.5% and 2.4%.
Dankwah indicated that despite this trend, the leading candidate, John Mahama has maintained an over 11% lead.
He emphasized that Ghana’s election is not as close as some may suggest.
“According to Edison Research, independent voters favored the Democratic candidate – Vice President Kamala Harris – but Republican Donald Trump nonetheless improved his performance with the key swing voter bloc. Some 50% of independents said they voted for Harris and 45% for Trump – a 4 percentage point improvement for the Republican from 2020.
“According to Global InfoAnalytics, using a similar basis when compared to how floating voters voted in the 2020 election, the polls show that Nana Addo won floating voters by 57 percentage points margin (75% to 18%), but now floating voters are voting for JDM by 53 percentage points margin (67% to 14%)”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah asserted that these trends, as indicated by the data gathered so far, are why Ghana’s election will not be close.
He clarified that if Dr. Bawumia continues to lose support among floating voters, securing even a runoff will be a difficult task. “So far, a runoff is not expected.”
Dankwah criticized that instead of analyzing the exit poll data and addressing the message it conveys for improvement, the NPP is fixated on the fact that the “Elephant in America won the race”.
