Friedrich Merz has suffered a humiliating setback on his path to power as he failed to secure the necessary 316 votes in the Bundestag lower house of parliament to be to become Chancellor in the first vote.
He was widely presumed to be the next Chancellor. As such, it is surprising that he didn’t win the vote.
His CDU/CSU/SPD coalition nominally has 328 votes in the Bundestag but he got only 310 votes in his favour;18 less than one would expect him to get and, crucially, six short of the majority required to confirm him as the next Chancellor.
It is the first time in Germany’s postwar history that a candidate has lost the first round of voting in a country that prides itself on political stability.
Commentators called the shock outcome, in which Merz garnered 310 votes, a “complete catastrophe” and “a punch to the stomach” for the 69-year-old Chancellor-designate, who leads the centre-right CDU/CSU bloc which won February’s snap election with a disappointing 28.6% of the vote.
A stony-faced Merz retreated with his parliamentary group to consult on the path ahead.
It was not immediately clear from the secret ballot who had withheld their expected support, either rebels among his own conservatives or from the junior coalition partners, the Social Democrats.
Three abstentions were received as well as an invalid ballot.
Unconfirmed media reports said a second round would be held on Friday.
A failure to win in the second round would plunge Europe’s top economy into political turmoil, touching off an open-ended leadership battle or potentially new elections in which the far-right Alternative für Deutschland(AfD) party would be expected to do well or even win outright.
The developments throw a finely calibrated schedule for the week into disarray.
Merz was to be sworn in Tuesday and travel to both Paris and Warsaw on Wednesday, signalling a return to German leadership within the EU after six months of political limbo since Olaf Scholz’s government collapsed in acrimony.
He was to preside over ceremonies marking the 80th anniversary of the end of the second world war in Europe on Thursday before heading to Brussels on Friday to meet EU and NATO leaders.
Green party Co-leader, Felix Banaszak warned in a social media post that the failure to get Merz elected was “a turning point” and “not a good one”as Germany and Europe need stability, and very soon.”
However, he added that one can’t blame the opposition for not helping the government gain a majority. “That’s their job,” he said.
Despite a grand farewell last night, Outgoing Chancellor, Olaf Scholz and his ministers will continue in interim until the new government gets confirmed.
AfD Points To Weak Foundation
In a social media post, Alternative für Deutschland’s (AfD) co-leader, Alice Weidel said that the result of the vote “demonstrates the weak foundation” on which the coalition is built.
Shortly after, she called for a snap election. “Merz should step aside and the way should be cleared for a general election,” she told reporters, calling the result a “good day for Germany.”
Her party has been benefiting from the frustratingly long government formation process – topping some of the polls – and will surely seek to capitalise on today’s events even further.
According to the Bundestag’s website, to be elected, the candidate must secure the votes of an absolute majority of the Members of the Bundestag, that is half of the Members plus at least one additional vote. This is sometimes called the “Chancellor majority.”
If the candidate fails to secure an absolute majority in the first round of voting, a second round is held. The Bundestag then has 14 days to elect another candidate to be Chancellor. There is no limit to the number of possible ballots, although an absolute majority is always required (Article 63.3 of the Basic Law).
If this second round of voting also fails to produce a result, the election process enters a third phase in which a new election must take place immediately.
The person who receives the largest number of votes (relative majority) is then elected to be Chancellor.
Where the Chancellor-elect secures an absolute majority, that is the votes of the majority of the Members of the Bundestag, the Federal President must appoint the Chancellor within seven days of the election.
If the Chancellor-elect receives only a relative majority, i.e. the most votes, the Federal President must either appoint the Chancellor within seven days or must dissolve the Bundestag (Article 63.4 of the Basic Law).
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