The Kremlin has warned that Russia will respond to Ukraine’s daring drone operation, with spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov saying that the response will be “how and when our military deems it appropriate.”
This seems to confirm reports that President Vladimir Putin had told Donald Trump that Moscow was obliged to retaliate.
The US President said that Putin had “strongly” told him that Russia would respond to the recent attacks on its airfields, during an unannounced phone call on Wednesday.
Ukraine has been bracing for retaliation after its SBU security service carried out a surprise drone strike over the weekend, targeting four airbases and damaging up to 20 Russian warplanes deep inside the country, according to US officials.
Hours after Trump and Putin spoke, Russia launched a series of missiles and drones across Ukraine overnight.
At least five people, including a one-year-old boy, his mother and grandmother, were killed when a drone struck a residential building in the northern Ukrainian city of Pryluky.
However, Russian officials have suggested that Moscow has yet to respond to Ukraine’s weekend drone attack, which came a day before two bridges collapsed, killing seven people – attacks Moscow blamed on Ukrainian sabotage.
Ukraine has intensified its sabotage operations over the past week, including detonating underwater explosives beneath a key bridge linking Russia to the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014.
On Wednesday, a visibly angry Putin for the first time reacted to the Ukrainian attacks, accusing Kyiv of “organising terrorist attacks.”
“How can we have meetings like this under these conditions? What is there to talk about? Who has negotiations with … terrorists?”
Vladimir Putin
Nuclear Response Unlikely
After Ukraine carried out its unorthodox operation using drones smuggled into Russia on trucks, pro-Kremlin war bloggers and prominent commentators posted on Russian media to demand retribution, with some calling for nuclear retaliation.
However, analysts consider the deployment of such weapons on the battlefield highly unlikely at this stage of the war.
Russia’s nuclear doctrine permits the use of nuclear weapons in response to attacks that pose a “critical threat” to the country’s sovereignty.
In a podcast for an independent outlet, Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based expert on Russian nuclear forces, rejected suggestions that Ukraine’s recent drone strikes could justify such a response.
He argued the operation did not threaten Russia’s sovereignty or territorial integrity, nor did it undermine the retaliatory capacity of its strategic nuclear arsenal.
A nuclear strike would also be strongly condemned by China, Russia’s most influential ally, with Xi Jinping previously warning Putin against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Instead, as in past responses to Ukrainian military successes, Moscow may launch a wave of deadly ballistic missile strikes – or deploy its experimental Oreshnik missile, which was used at least once last year.
While the drone strikes dealt a tangible blow to Russia’s military capacity and offered a morale boost for Kyiv, the broader picture remains less rosy for Ukraine.
More than three years after launching its invasion, Russia is largely on the offensive, making steady battlefield gains in eastern Ukraine and continuing to pound Ukrainian cities and civilians with drones and missiles.
Putin’s forces have been advancing further into Ukraine’s northern region of Sumy, threatening the regional capital after taking more than 150 sq km of the area in less than two weeks.
With Putin showing no willingness to agree to a lasting ceasefire, Ukrainian officials and the military are preparing for a Russian summer offensive, with Moscow intent on advancing into the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
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