US President, Donald Trump has announced that he has ordered the commerce department to conduct a new census that would exclude undocumented immigrants from the official count.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump asserted that the census would be “based on modern day facts and figures” and use “results and information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024.” He added that “people who are in our country illegally will not be counted.”

The US census has historically counted all residents regardless of citizenship or immigration status, as required by the 14th amendment’s “whole number of persons” provision. Trump’s directive contradicts this constitutional requirement despite there being no evidence of problems with the 2020 census.

The move would fulfil a longstanding rightwing talking point that undocumented immigrants should not influence congressional representation or electoral votes.

Far-right figures have long claimed that states like California gain unfair political advantage by counting non-citizens. The political activist Charlie Kirk, for example, argued in 2020 that “California gets an extra 9 electoral votes because of counting illegals.”

Census data determines congressional representation, electoral college apportionment and the distribution of federal funding for schools, hospitals and other essential services. States with large non-citizen populations – particularly California, Texas, Florida and New York – could see their political influence and federal resources sharply reduced under Trump’s proposed changes.

Republican lawmakers in both the House and Senate have pushed for citizenship-only counts on the census, with the most recent effort coming from Senator Bill Hagerty of Tennessee reintroducing legislation in late June, co-sponsored by 18 Senate Republicans.

Named the Equal Representation Act, it would require only citizens to be counted for congressional and electoral purposes, while mandating citizenship questions on future censuses. “It is unconscionable that illegal immigrants and non-citizens are counted toward congressional district apportionment and our electoral map for the presidency,” Hagerty said at the time.

Similar efforts in 2019 during Trump’s first presidency were blocked by courts and later reversed by Joe Biden in 2021. The supreme court ruled such attempts premature and legally uncertain.

Ironically, the census is actually set to widen in 2030 after the Biden administration approved adding “Middle Eastern or North African” as a new racial category – the first major change since 1977.

Legal and immigration advocates have also long stressed that restricting the census to citizens could depress participation among legal immigrants, who are already undocumented because they may be more reluctant to engage with government authorities.

The US Census Bureau’s own reviews found the 2020 count was accurate, with a net error rate of just -0.24%, which they say is statistically indistinguishable from zero. The Government Accountability Office noted in a 2024 report that the 2020 census produced a statistically accurate count of the US population at the national level, with no significant net coverage error.

The census directive is part of broader efforts targeting undocumented immigrants since Trump took office. The administration has set a goal of deporting 1 million immigrants annually and reportedly established daily arrest quotas of 1,200 to 1,500 individuals.According to 2024 Department of Homeland Security estimates, approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants were living in the US as of 2022.

Congressional Approval Needed To Change Census Conduct

Any changes in the conduct of a national census, which is the biggest non-military undertaking by the federal government, would require alterations to the Census Act and approval from Congress, which has oversight responsibilities, and there likely would be a fierce fight.

Terri Ann Lowenthal, a former congressional staffer who consults on census issues, said that while the Census Act permits a mid-decade census for distributing federal funding, it can’t be used for apportionment and must be done in a year ending in 5.

“He cannot unilaterally order a new census. The census is governed by law, not to mention the Constitution. Logistically, it’s a half-baked idea.”
Terri Ann Lowenthal

Also, New York Law School Professor, Jeffrey Wice said that it would be almost “logistically impossible to carry out a mid-decade census in such a short period of time.”