A new poll conducted by Dr. Evans Duah, a Lecturer at the Faculty of Business of the Akenten Appiah-Menka University of Skills Training and Entrepreneurial Development (AAMUSTED), has revealed that former Assin Central Member of Parliament, Hon. Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, is leading the race in the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) upcoming January 31, 2026 presidential primaries.
According to the poll, which compared the performance of the aspirants between August and September, Kennedy Agyapong’s popularity within the party has seen a significant rise, positioning him ahead of his closest contender, former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.
Presenting the results, Dr. Duah explained that the latest data reflects notable shifts in voter preferences within the NPP as delegates prepare to make their choice for the next flagbearer.
“Yes, we had some of the candidates doing well before, but in September we are seeing a sharp change with some of them. In the worst-case scenario, Hon. Kennedy Agyapong is doing 44.11 percent.
“This is against what he did in August, which was 41.73 percent. Now, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, who did 39.09 percent in August, has also improved slightly from 39.09 to 39.51.”
Dr. Evans Duah
He noted that while both leading candidates recorded some level of improvement, the change was much more significant for Kennedy Agyapong. The poll also found that some of the other aspirants witnessed declines or marginal gains.
“Dr. Bryan Acheampong has actually decreased as compared to his previous 11.34 percent and is now doing 6.28 percent. Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum, who was doing 2.71 percent in August, is now doing 3.19 percent, while Kwabena Agyei Agyapong, who did 0.34 percent, is now doing 0.86 percent.”
Dr. Evans Duah
According to Dr. Duah, these figures represent the “worst-case scenario,” meaning they show the minimum level of support each candidate is expected to have at the time of polling.
The data suggests that in this scenario, none of the candidates would cross the 50 percent plus one threshold required for an outright victory, raising the possibility of a runoff if voting were held under similar conditions.
“It means that, as it stands, there could be a probable runoff if things should remain this way. However, this represents about 94 percent of the total sample, as the undecided and undisclosed voters form the remaining six percent.”
Dr. Evans Duah
Best-Case Scenario
Dr. Duah explained that the poll also examined a “best-case scenario,” representing the maximum potential performance of each candidate should undecided and soft supporters make up their minds before the January vote.
“In the best-case scenario, we see one of the candidates crossing the 50 plus one. If the September polls are anything to go by, and I always say this is not predictive but a snapshot as at a period, then the only candidate who can cross that mark is Hon. Kennedy Agyapong”.
Dr. Evans Duah
He added that in this best-case outlook, Kennedy Agyapong could secure as much as 53.8 percent of the vote, while Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia would drop slightly, as a number of his previous supporters now fall within the undecided and undisclosed category.
“Dr. Bryan Acheampong gains from 6.28 to 8.27 percent, Dr. Adutwum gains from 3.19 to 4.39 percent, and Kwabena Agyapong moves from 0.86 in the worst-case to 1.33 percent in the best-case scenario”.
Dr. Evans Duah
Summarizing the projections, he said that Kennedy Agyapong currently has a minimum potential of 44 percent and a maximum of 53 percent going into the primaries. Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia follows with a minimum of 32 percent and a maximum of 39 percent.
Dr. Bryan Acheampong’s support ranges between 6.28 and 8.27 percent, Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum’s between 3.19 and 4.39 percent, and Kwabena Agyei Agyapong’s between 0.86 and 1.33 percent.
Dr. Duah observed that, based on the comparative data, four out of the five candidates have shown some improvement since the August poll. However, the trend suggests that Dr. Bawumia is losing ground, with some of his former supporters shifting their allegiance to other aspirants.
The AAMUSTED researcher emphasized that while the poll does not predict the final outcome of the primaries, it provides a snapshot of evolving voter sentiment within the NPP ahead of what promises to be a closely contested race.
READ ALSO: Ghana Inches Closer to $380 Million IMF Disbursement as Board Review Looms in December
