Pump prices of petrol, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are expected to inch upward in the next pricing window, according to the latest market outlook released by the Chamber of Bulk Oil Distributors (CBOD).
The report, which influences pricing decisions of Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), attributes the projected adjustments to rising international petroleum prices and recent weakness of the Ghanaian cedi.
The CBOD’s Market Outlook for the 1st to 15th December 2025 pricing window shows clear upward movements across key petroleum benchmarks, indicating that consumers should brace for small but notable increases at the pumps.
The findings reflect changes in Free On Board (FOB) prices, Mean of Platts prices and shifts in the exchange rate—factors that together shape the landed cost of fuel.
According to the report, petrol’s international price rose by 1.57%, while diesel recorded a more pronounced increase of 5.24% within the current pricing window.
LPG also edged up by 0.36%, remaining relatively stable compared to diesel and petrol. The CBOD noted that these movements were key triggers for the expected upward adjustments.
“The recent uptick in international market prices and the slight depreciation of the cedi within the current pricing window mean pump prices are projected to rise in the upcoming window of 1st to 15th December 2025.”
CBOD’s Market Outlook for the 1st to 15th December 2025 pricing window
Mean of Platts (PMI) prices, which serve as a reference benchmark for pricing refined fuel products, also show upward changes that will feed directly into the ex-pump prices set by OMCs. The PMI for petrol increased by 1.57% from the previous window, while diesel surged by 5.24%.
These international indicators signal that Ghana’s import-dependent petroleum market remains highly vulnerable to global supply shocks and price volatility, an issue that has persisted for years.
Cedi Depreciation Adds Pressure
Beyond global price movements, exchange rate dynamics continue to influence local fuel costs. The CBOD reports that “the first selling window of December (1st to 15th December) is estimated at GHS11.7000/USD, based on quotations from oil financing commercial banks.”
“The applicable spot rate for cash sales is estimated at GHS11.4000/USD based on quotations from oil financing commercial banks.”
CBOD’s Market Outlook for the 1st to 15th December 2025 pricing window
Even such marginal depreciation can significantly affect pump prices since a substantial portion of Ghana’s fuel supply is imported.
The slight weakening of the cedi means importers will spend more to acquire the same volumes of fuel, and these costs ultimately pass on to consumers.
Based on the combined effects of global price changes and exchange rate movements, the CBOD outlook shows that fuel prices in Ghana are poised for increments across all major product categories.
Petrol (PMS) is expected to rise modestly, reflecting moderate growth in international refined product prices and the exchange rate depreciation.
Diesel (AGO) is also projected to experience the sharpest increase due to a significant rise in global diesel prices, while LPG set for a marginal upward adjustment as global LPG prices rose only slightly within the period.
What This Means for Consumers and Businesses
Industry watchers say the projected increases, though marginal, could still heighten cost pressures on transport operators, manufacturers, and households heading into the festive season.
Diesel’s relatively steep increase may particularly affect freight and commercial transport sectors, which heavily depend on it.
Some OMCs are expected to maintain competitive pricing to attract consumers, meaning actual increases may vary across pumps. However, the overarching trajectory points upwards.
Energy analysts also caution that sustained depreciation of the cedi could amplify price hikes in future windows if global prices remain elevated.
Higher petroleum prices typically feed into broader inflationary trends, impacting the cost of food, goods, and services across the country.
As Ghana continues to stabilise macroeconomic indicators, such incremental increases could test the resilience of recent gains, especially as the economy remains sensitive to energy cost fluctuations.
The December window will close out the year’s fuel pricing cycle, and the trend reflects a market still exposed to both external shocks and internal currency volatility.
While the CBOD report focuses on the first half of December, it also sets expectations for the coming months. The volatility may persist as winter demand affects global market dynamics and geopolitical tensions continue to shape oil supply routes.
Unless the cedi strengthens or international prices ease, consumers may continue to see periodic increases through early 2026.
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