The first opinion poll released ahead of the Kpandai Constituency parliamentary rerun has pointed to a tightly contested race, with the New Patriotic Party’s Mathew Nyindam holding a slim lead over the National Democratic Congress’s Daniel Wakpal, a margin analysts say places the contest firmly within a statistical tie.
The survey, conducted by research firm Global InfoAnalytics, puts Nyindam at 50 per cent and Wakpal at 46 per cent, with one per cent indicating support for another candidate and three per cent remaining undecided. With a stated margin of error of 3.9 per cent, the four-point gap between the two leading candidates suggests that the outcome of the rerun is far from settled.
The poll is the first publicly available snapshot of voter sentiment since the Electoral Commission officially scheduled the Kpandai parliamentary rerun for Tuesday, December 30, 2025.
The rerun follows a High Court ruling that nullified the December 7, 2024 parliamentary election results in the constituency, citing significant breaches of the Public Elections Regulations.
Global InfoAnalytics’ findings have quickly ignited debate among party supporters and political observers, particularly because Kpandai has become a symbolic battleground following the court’s decision.
NDC’s Optimism
While the figures place the NPP candidate slightly ahead, the proportion of undecided voters and the narrow margin have fueled competing interpretations from both camps. Some NDC supporters have expressed confidence that the numbers favour their candidate when read beyond the headline figures.
One social media user, Mahama Safianu, argued that the undecided voters and support for other candidates would eventually consolidate behind Wakpal, insisting that the contest was already leaning in the NDC’s direction. Others struck a more humorous tone, predicting last-minute shifts that would overturn Nyindam’s lead.
Again, Nana Yaw Ices drew parallels with the Akwatia by-election scenarios, suggesting that early polling does not always reflect the final outcome and that momentum could still swing decisively in the National Democratic Congress’s candidate’s favour.
However, Nabong Razak interpreted the poll as validation of the NPP’s claim that its candidate legitimately won the original contest before it was annulled. There were also comments reflecting broader political narratives beyond party loyalty.
Divine Ankamah, also known as Amicus, framed the choice facing voters as one between immediate development and delayed progress, a message often echoed in campaign rhetoric during closely fought elections.
Other reactions expressed surprise at the competitiveness of the race, particularly when compared with recent parliamentary contests in other constituencies that saw clearer margins. The rerun itself has its roots in a legal challenge that has reshaped the political landscape in Kpandai.
On November 24, 2025, the Tamale High Court, presided over by Justice Emmanuel Brew Plange, ruled that the December 7, 2024 parliamentary election in the constituency was marred by substantial violations of the Public Elections Regulations.
The court held that the irregularities were significant enough to undermine the credibility of the results, leading to an order for a fresh poll. Following the judgment, Parliament formally declared the Kpandai seat vacant, paving the way for the Electoral Commission to act.
In a press statement issued on December 10, 2025, and signed by Mr. Fred Tetteh, Deputy Director of the Commission’s Research, Monitoring and Evaluation Department, the EC announced December 30, 2025, as the date for the rerun. The Commission indicated that the exercise would be conducted in line with existing electoral laws and procedures.
Political Tension
The Global InfoAnalytics poll has therefore arrived at a moment when political attention is sharply focused on the constituency. With just weeks to the rerun, both major parties are expected to intensify their campaigns, targeting undecided voters and reinforcing their core support bases. Analysts note that in such a close race, turnout levels and election-day organisation could prove decisive.
The presence of three per cent undecided voters, though seemingly small, is significant in a contest where the difference between the two leading candidates is within the margin of error. In rerun elections, voter behaviour can be unpredictable.
Some voters may be motivated by a desire to affirm their original choice, while others may reassess their position in light of the court ruling and subsequent campaign messages.
Global InfoAnalytics has not yet released detailed breakdowns of the poll by age, gender or locality, but the overall figures suggest a constituency evenly divided. The one per cent support for other candidates also introduces an element of uncertainty, as the eventual direction of those votes could influence the final outcome if they shift towards one of the leading contenders.
Beyond the numbers, the rerun is being closely watched for what it signals about electoral accountability and judicial oversight in Ghana’s democratic process. The High Court’s intervention, followed by Parliament’s declaration of a vacant seat and the EC’s swift scheduling of a rerun, has reinforced the role of institutions in resolving electoral disputes.
For voters in Kpandai, however, the immediate concern remains which candidate can best represent their interests in Parliament. As campaigning continues, both Nyindam and Wakpal are expected to sharpen their messages around development, representation and legitimacy.
Supporters on both sides appear convinced that momentum is on their side, a confidence reflected in the varied public reactions to the poll. Yet the statistical reality highlighted by Global InfoAnalytics suggests a contest that could be decided by a relatively small number of votes.
With the rerun date now fixed and early polling pointing to a near-dead heat, Kpandai is set to become one of the most closely watched constituencies in the country as the end of the year approaches.
Whether the narrow lead indicated in the first poll holds, widens or reverses will depend on how effectively each campaign converts support into votes on December 30.
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