The New Patriotic Party faces a mountain of work to win back voters who sat out the 2024 general election, according to polling from Global InfoAnalytics, whose Executive Director Mussa Dankwa says neither of the two presidential match-ups tested gives the party the upper hand.
The findings measure the voting intentions of absentee voters ahead of the 2028 election. The data traces a sharp movement away from the NPP among people who stayed home. Just over half of that group identified with the party when they declined to vote in 2024.
That share has since collapsed to 16%, with most of the departures landing among floating voters rather than moving directly to the National Democratic Congress. Approval of President John Dramani Mahama’s performance among the same group stands at 66%.
Ato Forson leads comfortably in the first scenario
The poll tested two possible contests. In a race between Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson and former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, Dankwa reports that Ato Forson leads with 45% to Bawumia’s 28%.
Kennedy Agyepong takes 19% in that scenario, with Alan Kyerematen on 1%, Nana Bediako on 4%, and other candidates sharing 3%. Mr Dankwa noted that the former NPP presidential aspirant draws support from both leading candidates rather than from one alone, describing Agyapong as scooping 19% from both Ato Forson and Bawumia.
That distribution complicates any simple reading of the numbers. Agyapong’s appeal cuts across the two main blocs among absentee voters, which suggests his support does not sit neatly within either party’s traditional base.
A dead heat when Asiedu Nketia enters
The second scenario changes the picture entirely. Against Bawumia, Johnson Asiedu Nketia produces what Dankwa called a dramatic turn.
The poll places the two men in a virtual tie, with Asiedu Nketia leading by a whisker on 35% to Bawumia’s 34%. Agyapong climbs to 22% in this configuration, while Kyerematen takes 2%, Bediako 4% and others 3%.
The contrast between the two scenarios is the most consequential finding for both parties. Swapping the NDC candidate erases a seventeen-point lead, which indicates that the movement of absentee voters toward the governing party attaches to particular candidates rather than to the party as a whole.
Why the NPP lost its absentee base
Mr Dankwa points to a shift in party affiliation as the underlying story, and the figures he cites are stark. Among people absent from the 2024 election, nearly 51% were NPP voters at the time they refused to show up. That share now stands at 16%.
The 35% who left have not, for the most part, joined the opposing party. Floating voters accounted for 21% of the absentee group originally and now account for 51%, an increase of 30 percentage points. NDC identification among the same voters rose from 9% to 15%.
Support for smaller parties moved the other way, declining from 13% to 5%. Dankwa observed that the smaller parties, despite their noise, are not growing from the absentee voters.
Approval and living standards
Dankwa suggests the explanation for the shift lies in how these voters assess the current administration. The poll shows 66% approving of the President’s job performance, 28% disapproving and 11% expressing no opinion.
Assessments of personal circumstances are more mixed. On standard of living compared with a year ago, 35% say it has improved, 39% report no change and 19% say it has worsened.
The gap between strong approval and modest personal improvement is worth noting. Two thirds endorse the President’s performance while barely a third report material gains, which suggests the approval rests on expectation or general direction rather than on household experience.
Akans over-represented among those who stayed home
The demographic profile of the absentee group carries direct implications for the NPP. Dankwa reports that 52% of those who failed to show up were Akan, drawn from the party’s traditional base.
Akans average about 45% of the population, meaning they were over-represented among absentees by roughly seven percentage points relative to the national figure. The party’s core constituency supplied a disproportionate share of the people who chose not to vote.
Young voters dominate the absentee bloc
The age data confirms a claim made by Minority Leader Alexander Kwamena Afenyo-Markin that young people made up the bulk of those who stayed home. Mr Dankwa reports that 50% of absentee voters were between 18 and 24 years old, while 28% fell between 35 and 44. Nearly 78% were between 18 and 44.
That concentration among younger voters matters for both parties as they plan for 2028. A bloc dominated by people under 45, half of them now floating rather than aligned, represents the largest pool of persuadable voters in the electorate.
The findings describe where absentee voters stand today rather than how they will behave in two years. Half now identify with no party, and the two scenarios tested produce results seventeen points apart, which indicates that candidate selection could shape the outcome as much as party loyalty.
For the NPP, the task Dankwa describes runs deeper than turnout. The party has not merely failed to mobilise these voters. It has lost their identification, and winning them back means competing for people who no longer consider themselves NPP at all.
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