Ghana’s merchandise trade surplus fell sharply to GH¢13.8 billion, or US$1.3 billion, in the second quarter of 2026 as a surge in imports compressed the external cushion built at the start of the year.
The Ghana Statistical Service’s Quarter Two Trade Newsletter, released on October 1, shows exports of GH¢108.5 billion, or US$9.6 billion, against imports of GH¢94.7 billion, or US$8.3 billion. Total merchandise trade reached US$17.9 billion.
Compared with the first quarter, exports declined 1.6 percent while imports jumped 47.5 percent, cutting the surplus by about 70 percent from GH¢46.1 billion. GSS compiles the trade series from Ghana Revenue Authority customs records under international merchandise-trade standards, with its underlying data available through the GSS trade database.
Imports Compress External Cushion
The quarter-on-quarter change is important because the deterioration came mainly from the import side rather than a collapse in exports. Ghana still sold more goods abroad in value terms than it bought, but the gap between the two narrowed dramatically.
That means the nominal trade position remains positive, yet the amount of foreign-exchange cover generated by merchandise trade was much smaller than in the first quarter. The larger import bill also raises the foreign-currency requirement associated with fuel, machinery, intermediate goods and consumption imports.
For the foreign-exchange market, the change is material. Importers needed substantially more foreign currency to finance the quarter’s goods purchases, even as export receipts were broadly flat. That increases the importance of how quickly export proceeds translate into usable market liquidity.
Not every import increase is economically adverse: machinery and productive inputs can support investment and output. But when fuel prices are rising, a larger import bill can also weaken the trade balance and transmit external cost pressure into transport, production and consumer prices.
Price Effects Reverse Headline
Import prices rose 22.7 percent between the first and second quarters, led by fuel. GSS deflates nominal trade values with the relevant unit value indices, expressing the real series at Q1 2021 prices and giving a clearer indication of volume movements.
On that basis, Ghana recorded a real trade deficit of GH¢14.6 billion. The positive nominal balance therefore did not reflect a surplus in price-adjusted trade volumes. Government Statistician Dr Alhassan Iddrissu captured the distinction directly: “Our surplus came from higher prices, not more goods.”
That finding extends the warning already visible in first-quarter trade, when the headline surplus also turned negative after price adjustment. It also reinforces the point made in Vaultz’s reserve paradox analysis that strong merchandise earnings do not automatically translate one-for-one into larger external buffers.
Gold Dominance Raises Exposure
Gold became even more dominant in the export basket. Bullion generated GH¢78.4 billion, or US$6.9 billion, equivalent to about 72 percent of all merchandise exports in the quarter.
The top five export products together accounted for 89 percent of exports, while just five destination countries bought 76 percent. The headline performance therefore remained concentrated in a narrow set of products and markets.
This concentration strengthens foreign-exchange earnings when gold prices are high, but it also leaves the external position unusually sensitive to a narrow set of products and buyers.
That matters for Ghana’s current-account outlook because commodity prices can improve the value of exports without the same improvement occurring in underlying export volumes or productive diversification.
West Africa Offers Broader Mix
The regional data provide a different picture. Trade with West Africa reached a record US$1.33 billion in the quarter, and Ghana’s exports to neighbouring markets were far more diversified than its worldwide export basket.
The top five products accounted for only 39 percent of exports to West Africa, compared with 89 percent worldwide. GSS described the remainder as a wide mix of made-in-Ghana goods.
That contrast is economically important. Ghana’s global trade strength is still anchored overwhelmingly in commodities, particularly gold, while regional markets appear to provide a wider platform for manufactured and value-added products.
For policymakers, the Q2 numbers therefore carry two messages. The first is immediate: a 47.5 percent jump in imports has reduced the nominal trade cushion and increased the economy’s foreign-exchange requirement. The second is structural: Ghana still depends heavily on favourable commodity prices to generate large trade surpluses.
A durable external position will require more than maintaining high gold receipts. It will depend on widening the export base, increasing domestic value addition and scaling the more diversified trade already visible within West Africa and the African Continental Free Trade Area.
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