Israel and Iran have never been closer to sparking a regional war in the Middle East.
Early this week, Iran launched a two-wave ballistic missile attack in response to Israel’s killing of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh and a top Iranian Commander.
Iran claimed it was targeting three military bases in the Tel Aviv area.
According to Israeli army reports, the salvo of 180 projectiles caused no casualties as most missiles were intercepted.
Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu immediately pledged to retaliate as the US rallied behind its close ally.
Meanwhile, United States President, Joe Biden has voiced opposition to any strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites in response to Tehran’s missile attack on Israel.
After speaking with G7 leaders, he said that he would not support an attack on Iran’s nuclear facility.
Any Israeli response to Iran, he told reporters, should be “proportional”, a position shared by all nations part of the G7 grouping, including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom.
The White House also said Biden and G7 leaders spoke about coordinating a new round of sanctions against Iran.
Nonetheless, Biden emphasised that the US is “fully supportive of Israel.”
Biden’s stance underscores the necessity for a proportional response—one that is not only justified but also strategic in its long-term implications.
Since the damage from the attack was minimal, Israel could opt for a limited response as it did in April, when Iran launched its first-ever attack on Israeli territory.
Targeting Iranian nuclear sites in reaction to an attack that did minimal damage may be viewed as disproportionate.
Any such attack also has the potential to backfire and push Tehran to speed up its nuclear programme to deter future strikes on its territory.
Andreas Krieg, Senior Lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London pointed out that most of Iran’s nuclear facilities are positioned deep underground, beneath mountains.
“It’s not something that will be easily accessible for Israel from the air,” he told a news agency.
Oil fields, which are open and less guarded than the heavily securitised nuclear sites, could be alternative military targets.
Hitting Iran’s lucrative oil sector at a time when Iranian authorities are facing mounting popular pressure over the country’s dire economic situation could also play to Israel’s political advantage.
However, Krieg said that he wasn’t sure Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities would be seen as justified in the eyes of the global community in light of the nature of Iran’s military strikes.
Region In Wait For Israel’s Response
The region now hangs in the balance as it waits to see whether Israel will choose to de-escalate or seek to confront its longtime foe with US backing.
Marc Owen Jones, an Analyst at Northwestern University in Qatar, opined that if Israel does choose to truly escalate, it could potentially mark a departure from decades of proxy war, dragging Iranian forces into a direct confrontation with Israel and its biggest ally, the US.
On its part, Iran, which is wary of starting a larger war, warned Israel against retaliation.
Iran’s armed forces joint chief of staff, General Mohammad Bagheri, said the IRGC is prepared to repeat its missile attack with “multiplied intensity” if Israel strikes back on its territory.
“If the Zionist regime, that has gone insane, is not contained by America and Europe and intends to continue such crimes, or do anything against our sovereignty or territorial integrity, [Tuesday’s] operation will be repeated with much higher magnitude and we will hit all their infrastructure.”
General Mohammad Bagheri
Bagheri also warned that Iran has so far avoided targeting Israeli civilians but that doing so would be “completely feasible.”
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