Nigeria is poised to lobby the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for a higher oil production quota as the country looks to rebound from years of declining crude output.

The country’s efforts to restore its oil production to previous levels have yielded positive results, setting the stage for a potential increase in Nigeria’s OPEC quota in the near future.

Gbenga Komolafe, the chief executive of the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), recently stated that Nigeria is focused on ramping up its oil output to align with its budget targets before officially requesting a quota adjustment from OPEC.

“Nigeria’s priority is to ramp up production to align with its budget targets before approaching OPEC for a quota increase,” Komolafe explained, emphasizing the country’s strategic approach to its oil production recovery.

As of December 2024, Nigeria’s crude oil production reached 1.48 million barrels per day (bpd), a notable recovery from the steep decline that the country suffered in recent years.

This figure is just slightly below the OPEC-set production quota of 1.5 million bpd. The increase marks a strong rebound from 2022, when Nigeria’s production had plummeted to a mere 1.1 million bpd.

At that time, the sharp decline was attributed to widespread oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and a lack of security in the oil-rich Niger Delta region.

The Nigerian government’s recent efforts to address these issues have played a significant role in reversing the downward trend in oil production.

“These strategies are delivering results, but at a high financial cost,” said Ifeanyi Onyegiri, a senior analyst at Welligence. Analysts believe that if Nigeria continues to make progress in securing its oil infrastructure, it will have a stronger case for requesting a higher OPEC production quota.

Local Oil Companies’ Role

In addition to government-led efforts, local oil companies have been instrumental in Nigeria’s recovery. Firms like Seplat Energy and Oando have ramped up investments in exploration and production.

Seplat, for instance, is planning to more than double its production to 120,000 bpd following its acquisition of ExxonMobil’s offshore assets. Similarly, Oando aims to boost its output to 100,000 bpd in the coming years.

These investments are not only helping to revitalize Nigeria’s oil industry but also building confidence in the sector, as evidenced by a tripling of drilling activity over the past four years, according to Komolafe.

However, while Nigeria’s oil sector appears to be on the mend, the goal of exceeding 2 million bpd in production could put the country at odds with OPEC’s production targets.

The oil cartel has been keen on stabilizing global oil prices by imposing output limits on member countries, and Nigeria’s potential production increase could create friction in this regard.

“Nigeria’s current financial situation makes exceeding its OPEC quota highly tempting, as additional revenue directly helps reduce the budget deficit,” said Dipo Ogunbiyi, an energy analyst at Renaissance Capital Africa.

With Nigeria’s oil revenues accounting for a significant portion of government income, increasing production would provide much-needed funds to address the country’s ongoing budgetary challenges.

Nigeria’s fiscal deficits have long been a major concern, with the government struggling to balance its budget amid fluctuating oil prices and declining output in recent years. As the country works to stabilize its economy, oil production remains a critical revenue stream.

However, analysts caution that pushing for a higher quota could lead to tensions with OPEC, which has been focused on maintaining market stability and preventing price volatility.

As Nigeria seeks to meet its budgetary goals and increase its oil production, the role of OPEC in managing output levels will be crucial. The country must navigate the complexities of its domestic challenges, OPEC’s production constraints, and global market dynamics to secure a favorable outcome.

Ultimately, Nigeria’s ability to maintain security, attract investment, and align its goals with OPEC’s objectives will determine whether it can successfully lobby for a higher production quota in the coming months.