Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, stated that winning the December 2024 election will hinge more on cross-party support than on candidates’ core bases.
He noted that John Mahama’s current coalition resembles and slightly surpasses Nana Addo’s 2020 coalition, with a notably stronger appeal among floating voters.
According to Dankwah, in 2020, Nana Addo had a ratio of 1.8 floating voters to every 1 for Mahama. Currently, for every 1 floating voter supporting Dr. Bawumia, there are 4.5 supporting Mahama.
“In the 2020 election, according to our exit poll, if you want to call it like that, NPP voters constituted only 72% of people who voted for Nana Add, 5% of Nana Addo’s coalition were NDC voters, floating voters accounted for 16%, other parties, 2%, and 4% were those who did not disclose their party affiliation.
“However, in the current poll, NPP voters constitute 91% of Dr Bawumia’s coalition, only 1% are from the NDC, floating voters are just 4% and 4%v did not disclose their party affiliations”.
Mussa Dankwah
The pollster emphasized that support from floating voters is crucial for winning an election in Ghana, as a candidate’s core base alone is often insufficient.
Dankwah noted that the voter dynamics in the Greater Accra Region (GAR) have shifted significantly compared to the 2020 elections.
He indicated that back then, floating voters accounted for 22% of Nana Addo’s coalition, a key factor in securing his victory. In contrast, they currently make up only 5% of Dr. Bawumia’s coalition.
Dankwah stated that for John Mahama, floating voter support has seen a positive trend; in 2020, floating voters represented just 4% of his coalition.
However, that figure has now grown to 11% in the Greater Accra Region, the most populous and electorally significant area in the country.
This shift in floating voter support could have substantial implications for the upcoming election.
“Data gleaned from the latest poll has revealed an interesting but critical insight into the 2024 elections from the perspective of voters who voted in the 2020 election in some of the crucial regions of the country”.
Mussa Dankwah
Mahama Leads Among Ashanti Region’s Floaters
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah revealed that in the Ashanti Region, among floating voters who participated in the 2020 election, 44% now plan to vote for John Mahama, 35% for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, and 21% for Nana Kwame Bediako.
He revealed that in the Eastern Region, 62% of these floating voters intend to support the NDC flagbearer, 33% favor the Vice President, and 5% lean toward Nana Kwame Bediako.
“In the Greater Accra, 55% will vote for JDM, 12% for DMB, 9% for AKK, and 23% for NKB. In the Central region, JDM is 70%, 10% for DMB, and 20% for NKB. Finally, in the Western region, JDM is 94% and NKB is 6%.
“These are from the samples of floating voters who voted in the 2020 election who said they will vote again in the December 2024 elections. In the 2020 elections, Nana Addo won them convincingly except in the Western region where Mahama won”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah also cautioned that, as always, demographic analysis is subject to a significant margin of error.
He explained that the poll included a sample with 35% of NPP voters, where Dr. Bawumia received 41.2% of total votes—exceeding his base by +6.2%.
In contrast, the NDC made up only 33% of the sample, yet John Mahama received 52.0% of the votes, performing +19.0% above his base. “Remember floating voters were 18%, other parties were 3%, and Not Disclosed were 11%, meaning 32% of the sample did not belong to NDC or NPP so to speak”.
He suggested that using a basic analysis, if every NPP supporter voted for Dr. Bawumia and every NDC supporter for John Mahama (though unrealistic in practice), then 19% of the remaining 32% would vote for Mahama.
The remaining 13% would divide their support among Dr. Bawumia, Alan Kyerematen, Nana Bediako, and others.
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