The Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Musa Danquah has asserted that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia is facing significant challenges in retaining the party’s stronghold in the Greater Accra Region.
The renowned pollster, in a detailed analysis of the political landscape based on recent polls conducted in the Greater Accra Region, strongly argued that the poll outcome indicates that the NPP’s presidential candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia is facing an uphill battle in several key constituencies within the capital.
“The April 2024 poll gave us some indications on the level of skirt and blouse voting in the country. This appears to be continuing even in these deep blue constituencies. It appears the 2024 elections will not follow the normal trend and there is plenty of polling data pointing to this conclusion if you believe in the data”.
Musa Danquah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
He stated that while the National Democratic Congress flagbearer, former President John Dramani Mahama is unlikely to win some traditional constituencies of the ruling party in the Greater Accra Region including Okaikwei Central, Okaikwei South, Anyaa Sowutuom, and Trobu, the margins in which Dr Bawumia, the ruling party’s flagbeaer is likely to win with would be uncomfortably narrow.
Mr Danquah emphasised that such development would go a long way to undermine the necessary vote buffer the governing New Patriotic Party relies on from Greater Accra, which contributes nearly 22% of the party’s voter base, in every general election.
Furthermore, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics explained that one of the most troubling factors affecting the ruling party in the Greater Accra Region is the performance disparity between the party’s parliamentary candidates and its presidential candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.
He posited that in most of the four traditional constituencies of the ruling New Patriotic Party in the Greater Accra Region, the party’s parliamentary candidates outperform the Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.
In contrast, Mr Danquah posited that former President John Dramani Mahama, the presidential candidate for the National Democratic Congress (NDC), is significantly outpacing his party’s parliamentary candidates in the same constituencies.
He noted that while the dynamic suggests that former President John Dramani Mahama is a substantial asset to his party’s parliamentary candidates in those constituencies, the same cannot be said about the Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.
Economic Woes Worsen NPP’s Electoral Fortunes
Moreover, Musa Danquah, the Global InfoAnalytics Executive Director underscored that the economic situation in the country is a major factor undermining the ruling New Patriotic Party’s prospects in those key traditional constituencies within the Greater Accra region.
“The hope was that as the election draws closer, the economy would improve. However, with six months to go, we have yet to see this improvement. Fuel prices and the exchange rate are in free fall, and voters in deep blue constituencies report worsening living standards”.
Musa Danquah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics
Mr Danquah emphasized that per its polls within the four key constituencies in the Greater Accra Region, 62% of respondents believe Ghana is heading in the wrong direction, with 74% expressing that their living standards have deteriorated.
He also added that even more alarmingly for the New Patriotic Party is that almost 71% of voters within the four constituencies in the Greater Accra Region disapprove of President Akufo-Addo’s performance, including 53% of the governing party’s supporters in the region.
In addition, Mr Danquah emphasized that the growing discontent against the ruling New Patriotic Party within those constituencies is fostering a “Skirt and Blouse” voting pattern, where NPP voters are inclined to support their parliamentary candidates while withholding their votes from the presidential candidate.
This divided voting behavior, he noted if not addressed, poses a significant threat to the New Patriotic Party’s goal of breaking the eight-year electoral cycle.
Mr Danquah concluded by urging the ruling New Patriotic Party to address the growing discontent against the party within the four constituencies in the Greater Accra Region to avert a devastating danger for the party in the December 7 polls.
