The geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically following a high-stakes meeting in Saudi Arabia between senior US and Russian officials, where discussions centered on the ongoing war in Ukraine and the future of US-Russia relations.
Tensions between Kyiv and Washington have since escalated, fueled by President Donald Trump’s recent controversial remarks and decisions regarding Ukraine’s role in peace talks.
As Trump intensifies his rhetoric against Volodymyr Zelenskyy, questions arise about whether the US is rethinking its strategy towards Russia—potentially at the expense of its relationship with Ukraine.
Speaking with the Vaultz News, Dr Victor Doke, a Research Fellow with the Faculty of Academic Affairs and Research (FAAR) at the KAIPTC, weighed in on Trump’s approach, calling him a “coercive mediator.”
He asserted that what the US President wants to do is dictate the pace of the peace talks and “dictate to each party the direction the peace talks will go.”
He noted that such a strategy could eventually force Ukraine to succumb to US pressure, resulting in a “win-lose” scenario where Russia benefits.
However, Dr. Doke also noted potential gains for both the US and Russia, suggesting that bilateral ties between both countries will be strengthened.
“Ideally, in a very negotiation circumstance, a mediator is supposed to be neutral, but Trump has already taken sides. And so for him, I think he wants to settle this once and for all. The economic gains are there, one, and strengthen bilateral relations with Russia, Two, and then also to be seen as powerful.”
Victor Doke
An important element in these negotiations is Ukraine’s vast deposits of rare earth minerals, which Trump has publicly expressed interest in.
US officials, including National Security Adviser, Mike Waltz, have hinted at an impending agreement for Ukraine to sign a minerals deal with the US, a deal which would reflect the amount of aid the US had provided to Ukraine.
Commenting on how this would augur for US military aid for Ukraine, Dr. Doke said that Trump has made it clear; “minerals for support, other than that, eventually, we pull out and then you are at the losing end.”
He said that the US is seen as a hegemonic entity so “when they pull out, other countries will also pull out.” “He’s a businessman, so he wants to run this conflict as a business,” he added.
Nonetheless, he expressed that it remains to be seen if the agreement will materialize.
Ukraine’s Exclusion To Drag Issues
Meanwhile, Trump’s dismissive stance to Zelenskyy’s complaints about being excluded from peace negotiations in Saudi Arabia has drawn concerns.
According to Trump, Zelenskyy has “been in meetings for three years and nothing got done.”
However, Dr. Doke argued that excluding Ukraine from the table will only prolong the conflict. “What is a resolution to a conflict if the two parties do not come to an agreement and then accept the way forward?” he questioned.
“It doesn’t end the war. But then if you want to go according to the books and then strike out the checks and everything, we are talking about the peace deal and the two conflict actors are needed.
“When you’re talking about peace talks, you need the mediator to be very neutral and assist the two parties come to a conclusion.”
Victor Doke
He opined that Trump may soon “eat the humble pie,” and then try to invite Zelenskyy to the peace table.
Given the recent meeting between senior US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia, could we be witnessing a fundamental shift in US foreign policy toward Moscow? When asked this question, Dr. Doke remarked, “I don’t think the general US foreign policy with Russia has changed.”
Nonetheless, he noted that under Trump’s administration, there’s going to be bolstering of ties with Russia “economically, security wise and diplomatically.”
“Pertaining to a holistic US foreign policy in the context of bilateral relations with Russia, I don’t think there’s a new foreign policy that’s going to come out because everybody knows how these two countries are careful with their dealings unless after Trump, we have another Republican who would follow suit in regard to Trump’s work.”
Victor Doke
The current diplomatic tensions between the US, Ukraine and Russia signal a pivotal moment in international politics.
While Trump’s exclusion of Zelenskyy from peace talks and his transactional stance on military aid raise questions about the US’s commitment to Ukraine, the broader implications for US-Russia relations remain uncertain.
As the situation develops, it will be crucial to see whether Trump’s approach leads to a swift resolution or if it further entrenches the conflict.
What’s clear is that the next phase of negotiations could reshape not only the future of Ukraine but also the global balance of power.
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