In a surprising turn of events, Conservative MPs have jolted Westminster by shifting their support towards right-wing candidates, sidelining centrist James Cleverly in the race to succeed Rishi Sunak as party leader.

Despite being the bookmakers’ favorite and surging in earlier ballots, Cleverly was eliminated on Wednesday afternoon, leaving Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch to face off in the final round, both representing the right wing of the party.

The result came as a shock, given Cleverly’s initial momentum after securing the support of 39 MPs in Tuesday’s vote. Many had expected him to progress to the final two. But in a dramatic twist, Cleverly lost the backing of two MPs by Wednesday’s ballot, dropping to 37 votes.

Meanwhile, Badenoch moved ahead with 42 votes, and Jenrick followed closely with 41. This outcome has raised suspicions of vote-lending tactics, where Cleverly’s camp may have overestimated their support and encouraged MPs to back Jenrick, hoping for an easier contest in the final membership vote.

Party Moves To Reclaim Right-Wing Voters

The shift to the right reflects a broader calculation by Tory MPs. Many believe they need to win back voters who have defected to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and re-engage those who stayed home in previous elections.

While elections are typically won by appealing to the center ground, recent trends show that more former Tory voters have gravitated toward Reform UK than toward Labour or the Liberal Democrats.

This dynamic allowed Labour leader Keir Starmer to secure a landslide victory with fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn received when he was soundly defeated by Boris Johnson in 2019.

Cleverly’s exit from the race comes just a day after fellow centrist and former security minister Tom Tugendhat was eliminated with only 20 votes. Tugendhat had been a favorite among the One Nation caucus of Tory MPs, but the contest now firmly rests in the hands of the party’s right wing.

Cleverly’s downfall is particularly striking given his strong performance at the party’s annual conference in Birmingham. His speech received the most enthusiastic response of the four candidates, winning over both MPs and grassroots members. Nonetheless, it wasn’t enough to secure his place in the final two.

On the other hand, Kemi Badenoch, who now finds herself in a head-to-head battle with Jenrick, had a somewhat bumpy ride at the conference. She faced criticism for missteps, including controversial remarks about maternity pay and suggesting that some civil servants “should be in prison.” Yet, despite these hiccups, she managed to outpace Cleverly in the vote.

Final Showdown Between Jenrick and Badenoch

With the race now between Jenrick and Badenoch, Tory members will cast their votes online from October 10 to 31, with the winner to be announced on November 2.

After Wednesday’s results were revealed, Cleverly expressed his gratitude for the support he received, urging the party to unite to “take on this catastrophic Labour government.”

But tensions quickly flared between the remaining candidates. Jenrick, who has adopted a hardline stance on migration in recent weeks, wasted no time drawing distinctions between himself and Badenoch.

A source from his campaign declared, “The race is now a choice between Leave or Remain in the ECHR,” referencing the European Convention on Human Rights. Jenrick has made it clear that he believes the party must exit the ECHR to stop “subjecting our people to dangerous criminals on our streets.”

Badenoch’s team, however, rejected this framing, clarifying that while she is open to leaving the ECHR “if necessary,” she believes it should be part of a comprehensive strategy rather than “a throwaway promise to win a leadership contest.”

Labour Party Chair Ellie Reeves was quick to respond to the latest developments, calling the remaining candidates “two of the architects of Tory failure.” Reeves criticized both Badenoch and Jenrick for their roles in the past 14 years of Conservative leadership, stating, “While the endless bickering continues, Labour is fixing the foundations and sorting out the mess that these two deeply unimpressive figures left behind.”

As the race enters its final phase, Jenrick has challenged Badenoch to a series of debates, with the first expected to take place next week. Tory members now have the unenviable task of deciding which candidate will lead the party into the next general election.