The British public does not share the government’s appetite for perpetual conflict with the European Union (EU) and more people see the bloc as a key future partner than the US, according to a report on post-Brexit foreign policy.

The report by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) underscored that “the Johnson government seems to need the perennial fights of a permanent Brexit” but warned that “this approach is eroding the UK’s capacity to cooperate with the EU on foreign and security policy”.

The report revealed that “the British public do not have any particular animus towards the EU”. Instead it underscored that the British Public do “value British sovereignty and independence” and “would support a foreign policy that worked cooperatively with the bloc”.

Polling for the report found people were evenly split on who was most to blame for the current dire state of relations between the UK and EU, with 39% blaming Britain and 38% saying they considered the bloc responsible.

The divide was predictably partisan, with 70% of Conservative voters blaming the EU and 66% of Labour voters, the UK. It was strongest among those with a keen interest in politics, however, most people were less bothered. Regardless of who they saw as responsible, 39% of the public considered the EU a key partner in future compared to 22% for the US.

UK views on US-China

The survey also found the lack of enthusiasm for the US extended to its conflict with China, with 54% believing there was already a cold war between the two and 45% preferring the UK stays neutral in the event of a war.

More broadly, the UK government’s vision for “Global Britain” aimed “to restore British greatness as a maritime trading nation”, the report iterated. Yet, the evidence showed it amounted to little more than “a delusion rooted in a misremembered imperial past”.

The British military, “despite its grand traditions, no longer provides the relative advantage for the UK that it once did”, the authors, Nick Witney and Jeremy Shapiro, said. Polling showed the public was “at best indifferent to the restoration of Britain as a global military power”.

Foreign policy priorities

The ECFR survey found only 6% of respondents favored a UK foreign policy that prioritized Britain’s military strength, while 40% said they would like foreign policy to focus primarily on strengthening the domestic economy.

“The government’s pride in seeing British naval forces steam into the Pacific Ocean does not seem to inspire the public”.
ECFR

Rather than looking to the past, and across the world to “a distant Indo-Pacific”, the UK should “rely on its privileged position in international institutions, its world-class diplomatic corps, and a careful effort to nurture its still-considerable soft power”, the authors advised.

According to the report, the UK could “gain the prosperity and respect it craves by … working with a variety of partners”, effectively “triangulating” between EU and US positions.

The past year has been marked by ongoing battles between the UK and the EU over multiple issues including fishing licences and the Northern Ireland protocol.

But the ideology of “permanent Brexit … cannot suspend the laws of distance and strategy”, the report contended. Faced with “increasing geopolitical competition, authoritarian advances and geo-economic coercion, the EU remains Britain’s essential partner”.

It was “delusional” to believe in “vast untapped commercial opportunities on the far side of the world that can compensate for the loss of the EU single market”, the report stated. According to the report, it is “dangerous to turn a blind eye to what Britain could gain in global influence through cooperation with the EU”.

A close strategic partnership with the EU would allow the UK to “both protect its sovereignty, and become a force in global affairs”, the report highlighted. Such a partnership could also command political support in the UK “despite the daily drumbeat of EU-bashing by the Johnson government”.