The Black Stars of Ghana only have a slim chance of winning the 2021 AFCON with a success rate of 7.31%, according to Stats Preform AI Modelling by The Analyst. Per the analyses, the Black Stars ranked 8^th in terms of teams that are likely to win the trophy this year.

The Atlas Lions of Morocco are tipped as favorites to win Group C which comprises Ghana, Morocco, Comoros and Gabon. Morocco has the second-highest chance of finishing first in a group and the second-highest chance of winning the tournament.

They also have a solid Round of 16 draw should they finish ahead of Ghana, Gabon and Comoros.

The Group C winners draw the third-place team from either Group A, B or F. As a result, their 69.02% chance of reaching the quarter-finals is the highest of the 24 teams, as is their 25.30% chance of reaching the final.

Nigeria as favorites

The Super Eagles of Nigeria are tipped as favorites to lift the 33^rd edition of the AFCON to be staged in Cameroon with a 14.9% chance of winning.

“The numbers are so close between Nigeria and Morocco that we should probably consider them co-favourites for the Africa Cup of Nations, but finalists don’t split trophies and neither do we. Neither Nigeria nor Morocco lost during the AFCON 2021 qualifiers, but they did it in different ways. Morocco only conceded once, while Nigeria let in seven goals in six matches against Sierra Leone, Benin and Lesotho”.
The Analyst

The Analyst stated that the AFCON 2013 winners, Nigeria, has an ever-so-slight pre-tournament edge as they attempt to spoil the festivities for their hosts and neighbors Cameroon. The Super Eagles will be without Watford striker Emmanuel Dennis and Napoli’s Victor Osimhen, but there’s no shortage of European attacking talent in the Nigeria camp with La Liga and Villarreal standout Samuel Chukwueze, as well as their England-based players led by Kelechi Iheanacho.

Among all 24 sides, Nigeria has only the fourth-highest likelihood of winning their group because they’ve got seven-time champions Egypt and Mohamed Salah to deal with in Group D, but things could improve from there with what could be a friendlier path to the trophy than other contenders. Their percent likelihood of reaching the quarter-finals is third highest at 61.63%, while their semi-final (39.71) and final (25.20) chances are second.

But things won’t be so straightforward if they aren’t able to advance ahead of Egypt and their Liverpool star, The Analyst warned. The Group D winner is matched with a third-place team from either B, E or F in the round of 16. Second place in Group D will have to play the winner of Group E, which is likely to be Algeria or Ivory Coast.

Cameroon

The host, Cameroon, has a 40.59% chance of winning Group A. That narrowly edges Burkina Faso (36.08%), and the two meet to kick off the tournament on Sunday, January 9, 2022. Cameroon also has an 84.85% chance of qualifying for the last 16, but the knockout phase could prove to be a difficult path for the Indomitable Lions.

The winner of Group A faces a third-place team from either C, D or E, which figures to be a winnable match. But it’s also important to note they could face Algeria, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco or Ghana if one of those happen to finish third. Their quarter-final match would most likely be Mali or Guinea, but it could also be against Senegal or Tunisia.

If Cameroon finishes second, things will get particularly difficult. In the last 16, they’d have to play the runners-up from Group C, which contains both Morocco and Ghana. If they are to advance beyond that, they would have a quarter-final matchup most likely against the winner of Group D, which contains both Egypt and Nigeria.

With all of this taken into consideration, Cameroon has a 43.17% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, but its likelihood of reaching the semis plummets to 19.63%.

Comparison with predictions for the Euro 2020

Back in June for Euro 2020, the analysts only had six teams with higher than a 6% chance of winning the tournament. Italy were one of them, and they went on to lift the trophy. For AFCON, the predictor has eight teams with higher than a 7% chance of winning and 12 with higher than a 2% chance, while Euros had 10.

Stats Perform’s AFCON 2021 prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Stats Perform’s team rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.

The model considers the strength of opponents and the difficulty of the “path to the final” by using the match outcome probabilities with the composition of the groups and the seedings into the knockout stages. It then simulates the remainder of the tournament 40,000 times. By analyzing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model returns the likelihood of progression for each team at each stage of the tournament to create the final predictions.